Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1204
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1204
 
03 Nov 2022
03 Nov 2022
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Sensitivity analysis of erosion on the landward slope of an earthen flood defence submitted to wave overtoppings

Clément Lutringer1,2, Adrien Poupardin1, Philippe Sergent3, Abdelkrim Bennabi1, and Jena Jeong1,2 Clément Lutringer et al.
  • 1ESTP Paris, 28 Avenue du Président Wilson, 94230 Cachan, France
  • 2Gustave Eiffel University, Cité Descartes, 77200 Marne-la-Vallée, France
  • 3CEREMA Risques Eau Mer, 134 rue de Beauvais, 60280 Margny-les-Compiègne, France

Abstract. The study aims to provide a complete analysis framework applied to an earthen dyke located in Camargue, France. This dyke is regularly submitted to erosion on the landward slope that needs to be repaired. Improving the resilience of the dyke calls for a reliable model of damage frequency. The developed system is a combination of copula theory, empirical wave propagation and overtopping equations as well as a global sensitivity analysis in order to provide the return period of erosional damage on a set dyke while also providing recommendations in order for the dyke to be reinforced as well the model to be self-5 improved. The results give a good correspondence, within uncertainty range, between the model prediction of return periods and the on-site observation (≈ two-year return period). The mean of the return periods is slightly higher with an average return period of six years but the peak of the distribution is located around the two years mark. The sensitivity analysis shows that the geometrical characteristics of the dyke - slope angles and dyke height - are the ones carrying the highest amount of uncertainty into the system, showing that maintaining a homogeneous dyke is of great importance. Some empirical parameters intervening inside the propagation and overtopping process are also fairly uncertain and suggest that using more robust methods at their corresponding steps could improve the reliability of the framework. The obtained return periods have been confirmed by current in situ observations but the uncertainty increases for the most severe events due to the lack of long-term data.

Clément Lutringer et al.

Status: open (until 04 Jan 2023)

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  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1204', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Dec 2022 reply

Clément Lutringer et al.

Clément Lutringer et al.

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Short summary
We developped a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defence structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty. The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a mediterranean earthen dyke. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features such as its height slope angles.