03 Nov 2022
 | 03 Nov 2022

Sensitivity analysis of erosion on the landward slope of an earthen flood defence submitted to wave overtoppings

Clément Lutringer, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong

Abstract. The study aims to provide a complete analysis framework applied to an earthen dyke located in Camargue, France. This dyke is regularly submitted to erosion on the landward slope that needs to be repaired. Improving the resilience of the dyke calls for a reliable model of damage frequency. The developed system is a combination of copula theory, empirical wave propagation and overtopping equations as well as a global sensitivity analysis in order to provide the return period of erosional damage on a set dyke while also providing recommendations in order for the dyke to be reinforced as well the model to be self-5 improved. The results give a good correspondence, within uncertainty range, between the model prediction of return periods and the on-site observation (≈ two-year return period). The mean of the return periods is slightly higher with an average return period of six years but the peak of the distribution is located around the two years mark. The sensitivity analysis shows that the geometrical characteristics of the dyke - slope angles and dyke height - are the ones carrying the highest amount of uncertainty into the system, showing that maintaining a homogeneous dyke is of great importance. Some empirical parameters intervening inside the propagation and overtopping process are also fairly uncertain and suggest that using more robust methods at their corresponding steps could improve the reliability of the framework. The obtained return periods have been confirmed by current in situ observations but the uncertainty increases for the most severe events due to the lack of long-term data.

Clément Lutringer et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1204', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Dec 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Clément Lutringer, 02 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1204', Anonymous Referee #2, 03 Jan 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Clément Lutringer, 20 Jan 2023

Clément Lutringer et al.

Clément Lutringer et al.


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Short summary
We developped a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defence structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty. The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a mediterranean earthen dyke. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features such as its height slope angles.