Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2341
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2341
29 Jul 2024
 | 29 Jul 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Meteorological drought projections for Australia from downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 climate simulations

Rohan Eccles, Ralph Trancoso, Jozef Syktus, Sarah Chapman, Nathan Toombs, Hong Zhang, Shaoxiu Ma, and Ryan McGloin

Abstract. Climate change is projected to lead to changes in rainfall patterns, which, when coupled with increasing evapotranspiration, has the potential to exacerbate future droughts. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on meteorological droughts in Australia using downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 climate models under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to assess changes to the frequency, duration, percent time, and spatial extent of droughts. There were consistent increases in droughts projected for south-west Western Australia, southern Victoria, southern South Australia, and western Tasmania using SPI and SPEI. There were significantly larger increases for SPEI derived droughts, with consistent increases projected for most of the country. The largest increases occurred at the end of the century and under the high emissions scenario (SSP370), demonstrating the influence of emissions on extreme droughts. For instance, if emissions reached high levels by the end of the century, the area subject to extreme drought in drought prone Southern Australia would be 2.8 greater than if they were kept to low levels using SPI, and 4 times greater if assessed using SPEI. The insights generated from these results and supplementary tailored datasets for Australian Local Government Areas and River Basins are essential to better inform decision making and future adaptation strategies at national, regional, and local scales.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Rohan Eccles, Ralph Trancoso, Jozef Syktus, Sarah Chapman, Nathan Toombs, Hong Zhang, Shaoxiu Ma, and Ryan McGloin

Status: open (extended)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2341', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Nov 2024 reply
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2341', Sivarajah Mylevaganam, 22 Nov 2024 reply
Rohan Eccles, Ralph Trancoso, Jozef Syktus, Sarah Chapman, Nathan Toombs, Hong Zhang, Shaoxiu Ma, and Ryan McGloin
Rohan Eccles, Ralph Trancoso, Jozef Syktus, Sarah Chapman, Nathan Toombs, Hong Zhang, Shaoxiu Ma, and Ryan McGloin

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Short summary
Rainfall and evaporation are two key variables influencing when droughts occur and their severity. We use the latest climate simulations for Australia to see how changes to rainfall and evaporation influence future droughts for Australia and show increases are likely over most of Australia, especially in the south. Increases to evaporation are shown to be larger than changes to rainfall over most of the continent. We show that keeping emissions to lower levels can work to mitigate these impacts.