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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-928
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-928
22 Sep 2022
 | 22 Sep 2022

Toward a multivariate formulation of the PKF assimilation: application to a simplified chemical transport model

Antoine Perrot, Olivier Pannekoucke, and Vincent Guidard

Abstract. This contribution explores a new approach to forecast multivariate covariances for atmospheric chemistry through the use of the parametric Kalman filter (PKF). In the PKF formalism, the error covariance matrix is modelized by a covariance model relying on parameters, for which the dynamics is then computed. The PKF has been formulated in univariate cases, and a multivariate extension for chemical transport models is explored here. To do so, a simplified two-species chemical transport model over a 1D domain is introduced, based on the nonlinear Lotka-Volterra equations, which allows to propose a multivariate pseudo covariance model. Then, the multivariate PKF dynamics is formulated and its results are compared with a large ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in several numerical experiments. In these experiments, the PKF accurately reproduces the EnKF. Eventually, the PKF is formulated for a more complex chemical model composed of six chemical species (Generic Reaction Set). Again, the PKF succeeds at reproducing the multivariate covariances diagnosed on the large ensemble.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

14 Jun 2023
Toward a multivariate formulation of the parametric Kalman filter assimilation: application to a simplified chemical transport model
Antoine Perrot, Olivier Pannekoucke, and Vincent Guidard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 139–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-139-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-139-2023, 2023
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This work is a theoretical contribution that provides equations for understanding uncertainty...
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