Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-558
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-558
04 Feb 2026
 | 04 Feb 2026

Dynamics of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone: Insights from Potential Vorticity Tendency Diagnostics

Ninghui Li, Jonathon S. Wright, Philip Rupp, Alison Ming, Shenglong Zhang, and Jie Gao

Abstract. The Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone (ASMA) is a dominant circulation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during boreal summer and exhibits pronounced temporal and spatial variability. While its time-mean structure and climatological characteristics are well documented, the mechanisms governing its temporal evolution, particularly its eastward and westward propagation, episodic eddy-shedding events, and the emergence of multimodal behavior are remaining incompletely understood. Using multiple reanalysis datasets (JRA-3Q, ERA5, MERRA-2) from 2000–2020, this study analyzes the dynamic structures of the ASMA, the analysis shows that the ASMA exhibits a trimodal structure with centers over the Iranian Plateau, Tibetan Plateau, and western Pacific, identified via a multi-center vortex tracking algorithm applied to the 370 K isentropic surface to distinguish persistent and transient anticyclones. Further results show that mean zonal and meridional advection are the primary drivers of potential vorticity (PV) tendency, while total diabatic heating that plays a crucial modulating role in ASMA evolution. A key contribution of this work lies in the formulation and application of an ASMA-specific PV tendency diagnostic, which builds upon established PV budget and enables a more rigorous quantification of the respective roles of dynamical and thermodynamical processes in the anticyclone's intensification and zonal propagation across its three modes. This diagnostic decomposes total PV tendency into dynamic components (e.g., horizontal and vertical advection) and thermodynamic components (e.g., latent heating and background radiation), enabling the separation of the combined effects of anticyclone propagation and intensification by capturing a characteristic tripole pattern of PV tendency. Compared to conventional methods, this new diagnostic provides a more rigorous and precise quantification of the physical processes governing the ASMA's zonal movements and overall development, thereby advancing our scientific understanding of the ASMA's variability and underlying mechanisms in the UTLS region.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

28 Sep 2026
Dynamics of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone: insights from potential vorticity tendency diagnostics
Ninghui Li, Jonathon S. Wright, Philip Rupp, Alison Ming, Shenglong Zhang, and Jie Gao
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1853–1874, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1853-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1853-2026, 2026
Short summary
Ninghui Li, Jonathon S. Wright, Philip Rupp, Alison Ming, Shenglong Zhang, and Jie Gao

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-558', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Mar 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-558', Anonymous Referee #2, 17 Apr 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Ninghui Li on behalf of the Authors (28 May 2026)
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (07 Jun 2026) by Juliane Schwendike
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (26 Jun 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (06 Aug 2026)
EF by Anna Mirena Feist-Polner (22 Jun 2026)  Manuscript   Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Supplement 
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (19 Aug 2026) by Juliane Schwendike
AR by Ninghui Li on behalf of the Authors (30 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (01 Sep 2026) by Juliane Schwendike
AR by Ninghui Li on behalf of the Authors (02 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (02 Sep 2026) by Juliane Schwendike
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (08 Sep 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (08 Sep 2026) by Juliane Schwendike
AR by Ninghui Li on behalf of the Authors (09 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (10 Sep 2026) by Juliane Schwendike
AR by Ninghui Li on behalf of the Authors (13 Sep 2026)  Manuscript 

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-558', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Mar 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-558', Anonymous Referee #2, 17 Apr 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Ninghui Li on behalf of the Authors (28 May 2026)
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (07 Jun 2026) by Juliane Schwendike
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (26 Jun 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (06 Aug 2026)
EF by Anna Mirena Feist-Polner (22 Jun 2026)  Manuscript   Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Supplement 
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (19 Aug 2026) by Juliane Schwendike
AR by Ninghui Li on behalf of the Authors (30 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (01 Sep 2026) by Juliane Schwendike
AR by Ninghui Li on behalf of the Authors (02 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (02 Sep 2026) by Juliane Schwendike
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (08 Sep 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (08 Sep 2026) by Juliane Schwendike
AR by Ninghui Li on behalf of the Authors (09 Sep 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (10 Sep 2026) by Juliane Schwendike
AR by Ninghui Li on behalf of the Authors (13 Sep 2026)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

28 Sep 2026
Dynamics of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone: insights from potential vorticity tendency diagnostics
Ninghui Li, Jonathon S. Wright, Philip Rupp, Alison Ming, Shenglong Zhang, and Jie Gao
Weather Clim. Dynam., 7, 1853–1874, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1853-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1853-2026, 2026
Short summary
Ninghui Li, Jonathon S. Wright, Philip Rupp, Alison Ming, Shenglong Zhang, and Jie Gao
Ninghui Li, Jonathon S. Wright, Philip Rupp, Alison Ming, Shenglong Zhang, and Jie Gao

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Short summary
We study the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone, a high-altitude system critical to Asian summer weather. Global data analysis over two decades reveals three stable centers (instead of a single vortex), wind/water vapor heat drivers, and the process of west/east propagation and dissipation.
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