Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4450
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4450
18 Sep 2025
 | 18 Sep 2025

Towards a semi-asynchronous method for hydrological modeling in climate change studies

Frédéric Talbot, Simon Ricard, Guillaume Drolet, Annie Poulin, Jean-Luc Martel, Richard Arsenault, and Jean-Daniel Sylvain

Abstract. Hydrological impact assessments under climate change commonly rely on conventional modeling chains where climate projections are bias-corrected before being used in hydrological simulations. While this improves agreement with historical observations, it can introduce methodological uncertainties, reduce the diversity of climate ensembles, and smooth out extreme events. Asynchronous methods have been proposed as an alternative, allowing hydrological models to be calibrated directly with raw climate model outputs. However, fully asynchronous methods often fail to capture the timing of key hydrological processes, especially in snow-affected regions.

This study introduces and evaluates a semi-asynchronous calibration approach that incorporates a monthly temporal structure to address these limitations. Using the physically based WaSiM model, we compare the semi-asynchronous, fully asynchronous, and conventional methods across ten snow-influenced catchments in southern Quebec, Canada, under historical and future climate conditions.

The results show that while the fully asynchronous and semi-asynchronous methods perform well in preserving streamflow distributions and high-flow extremes, only the semi-asynchronous method succeeds in restoring the seasonal timing of key processes such as snowmelt and low flows. The semi-asynchronous method notably reduces intermodel variability in streamflow and snow water equivalent compared to the fully asynchronous approach. It also exhibits seasonal dynamics that closely align with observations and the conventional method, despite relying on uncorrected climate inputs. In contrast, the fully asynchronous method shows signs of desynchronization, with unrealistic snowmelt timing and elevated variability across projections. The conventional method, while more stable in the historical period, exhibits an increase in intermodel variability under future conditions, likely due to divergent magnitudes of projected change across climate models. The semi-asynchronous method presents a clear improvement over the fully asynchronous approach by restoring temporal coherence and improving the simulation of seasonal processes. It also reduces intermodel variability while maintaining the raw climate signal and preserving the distribution of streamflow.

Compared to the conventional method, which benefits from stable and consistent simulations but tends to dampen extremes through bias correction, the semi-asynchronous approach offers a compelling alternative. It strikes a different balance between realism, ensemble diversity, and the ability to represent extreme events, making it particularly valuable for future-oriented climate impact assessments.

This study highlights the potential of the semi-asynchronous method as an innovative and robust tool for hydrological modeling under climate change. As climate model simulations continue to improve and their biases are progressively reduced, the semi-asynchronous approach is poised to benefit significantly, enhancing its potential for future hydrological projections.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
Share

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

25 Aug 2026
Towards a semi-asynchronous method for hydrological modeling in climate change studies
Frédéric Talbot, Simon Ricard, Guillaume Drolet, Annie Poulin, Jean-Luc Martel, Richard Arsenault, and Jean-Daniel Sylvain
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 5411–5453, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5411-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5411-2026, 2026
Short summary
Frédéric Talbot, Simon Ricard, Guillaume Drolet, Annie Poulin, Jean-Luc Martel, Richard Arsenault, and Jean-Daniel Sylvain

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4450', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Jan 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Frédéric Talbot, 15 Apr 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4450', Anonymous Referee #2, 13 Mar 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Frédéric Talbot, 15 Apr 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (18 Apr 2026) by Nunzio Romano
AR by Frédéric Talbot on behalf of the Authors (20 May 2026)  Author's response 
EF by Mario Ebel (21 May 2026)  Manuscript   Author's tracked changes 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (05 Jun 2026) by Nunzio Romano
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (22 Jun 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (22 Jul 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (22 Jul 2026) by Nunzio Romano
AR by Frédéric Talbot on behalf of the Authors (11 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (11 Aug 2026) by Nunzio Romano
AR by Frédéric Talbot on behalf of the Authors (11 Aug 2026)  Manuscript 

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4450', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Jan 2026
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Frédéric Talbot, 15 Apr 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4450', Anonymous Referee #2, 13 Mar 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Frédéric Talbot, 15 Apr 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (18 Apr 2026) by Nunzio Romano
AR by Frédéric Talbot on behalf of the Authors (20 May 2026)  Author's response 
EF by Mario Ebel (21 May 2026)  Manuscript   Author's tracked changes 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (05 Jun 2026) by Nunzio Romano
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (22 Jun 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (22 Jul 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (22 Jul 2026) by Nunzio Romano
AR by Frédéric Talbot on behalf of the Authors (11 Aug 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (11 Aug 2026) by Nunzio Romano
AR by Frédéric Talbot on behalf of the Authors (11 Aug 2026)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

25 Aug 2026
Towards a semi-asynchronous method for hydrological modeling in climate change studies
Frédéric Talbot, Simon Ricard, Guillaume Drolet, Annie Poulin, Jean-Luc Martel, Richard Arsenault, and Jean-Daniel Sylvain
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 5411–5453, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5411-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5411-2026, 2026
Short summary
Frédéric Talbot, Simon Ricard, Guillaume Drolet, Annie Poulin, Jean-Luc Martel, Richard Arsenault, and Jean-Daniel Sylvain
Frédéric Talbot, Simon Ricard, Guillaume Drolet, Annie Poulin, Jean-Luc Martel, Richard Arsenault, and Jean-Daniel Sylvain

Viewed

Total article views: 8,925 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
7,865 893 167 8,925 148 151
  • HTML: 7,865
  • PDF: 893
  • XML: 167
  • Total: 8,925
  • BibTeX: 148
  • EndNote: 151
Views and downloads (calculated since 18 Sep 2025)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 18 Sep 2025)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 8,890 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 8,890 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 11 Sep 2026
Download

The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
This study compares three hydrological modeling approaches for assessing climate change impacts on water systems. We evaluate the conventional method alongside a fully- and semi-asynchronous methods, which excels in capturing extreme events but faces challenges with event timing. The results highlight the potential of the semi-asynchronous method as an innovative and robust tool for hydrological modeling under climate change.
Share