Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4440
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4440
18 Sep 2025
 | 18 Sep 2025

Interpretable Soil Moisture Prediction with a Physics-guided Deep Learning Approach

Yanling Wang, Xiaolong Hu, Yaan Hu, Leilei He, Lijun Wang, Wenxiang Song, and Liangsheng Shi

Abstract. Soil moisture is a critical component of the hydrological cycle, but accurately predicting it remains challenging due to the nonlinearity of soil water transport, variability in boundary conditions, and the intricate nature of soil properties. Recently, deep learning has shown promise in this domain, typically by modeling temporal dependencies for soil moisture predictions. In this study, we propose non-local neural networks (NLNN) to convert this problem into a single-time-step, simultaneous multi-depth soil moisture forecasting. By facilitating mutual compensation among different depths, this method enables a representation of vertical heterogeneity and inter-layer connectivity without physical assumptions, leading to precise and efficient predictions in diverse scenarios. Our non-local operation design includes the embedded Gaussian operations and disentangled physics-guided operations, resulting in two variants: the self-attention non-local neural network (SA-NLNN) and the physics-guided non-local neural network (PG-NLNN). The models offer visual interpretability, providing insights into intricate mechanisms of soil moisture dynamics. Notably, the model guided by physics yields more stable and reasonable qualitative interpretations. With in-situ observations, we demonstrate that our proposed models perform satisfactorily. The physics-guided non-local operations significantly enhance accuracy and reliability. Additionally, our models adapt to diverse time-scale situations while maintaining high computational efficiency. Both models exhibit robust noise resistance, with physics guidance enhancing PG-NLNN’s noise resistance. In summary, our work addresses the soil moisture prediction challenge in a novel way, highlighting the potential of NLNN and the importance of incorporating physic guidance in data-driven models.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

19 May 2026
Interpretable soil moisture prediction with a knowledge-guided deep learning approach
Yanling Wang, Xiaolong Hu, Yaan Hu, Leilei He, Lijun Wang, Wenxiang Song, and Liangsheng Shi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 2973–2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2973-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2973-2026, 2026
Short summary
Yanling Wang, Xiaolong Hu, Yaan Hu, Leilei He, Lijun Wang, Wenxiang Song, and Liangsheng Shi

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4440', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Oct 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Yanling Wang, 15 Nov 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4440', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 Nov 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Yanling Wang, 15 Nov 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4440', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Oct 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Yanling Wang, 15 Nov 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4440', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 Nov 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Yanling Wang, 15 Nov 2025

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (17 Nov 2025) by Bo Guo
AR by Yanling Wang on behalf of the Authors (18 Nov 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (24 Nov 2025) by Bo Guo
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (01 Dec 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (11 Jan 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (12 Jan 2026)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (18 Jan 2026) by Bo Guo
AR by Yanling Wang on behalf of the Authors (14 Feb 2026)  Author's response 
EF by Mario Ebel (02 Mar 2026)  Manuscript   Author's tracked changes 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (03 Mar 2026) by Bo Guo
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (07 Apr 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (17 Apr 2026) by Bo Guo
AR by Yanling Wang on behalf of the Authors (21 Apr 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (27 Apr 2026) by Bo Guo
AR by Yanling Wang on behalf of the Authors (27 Apr 2026)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

19 May 2026
Interpretable soil moisture prediction with a knowledge-guided deep learning approach
Yanling Wang, Xiaolong Hu, Yaan Hu, Leilei He, Lijun Wang, Wenxiang Song, and Liangsheng Shi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 2973–2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2973-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-2973-2026, 2026
Short summary
Yanling Wang, Xiaolong Hu, Yaan Hu, Leilei He, Lijun Wang, Wenxiang Song, and Liangsheng Shi
Yanling Wang, Xiaolong Hu, Yaan Hu, Leilei He, Lijun Wang, Wenxiang Song, and Liangsheng Shi

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Latest update: 13 Jun 2026
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Short summary
This study introduces a new interpretable deep learning method that accurately predicts multi-depth soil moisture simultaneously without physical assumptions. The model provides insights into soil properties, while delivering precise predictions across diverse scenarios. Tested under various conditions, it outperforms traditional approaches, particularly when enhanced with basic physics. This tool can help improve water management by offering reliable and efficient soil moisture forecasts.
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