Sea level rise in a coastal marsh: linking increasing tidal inundation, decreasing soil strength and increasing pond expansion

Abstract. Coastal marsh conversion into ponds, which may be triggered by sea level rise, is considered an important driver of marsh loss and their valuable ecosystem services. Previous studies have focused on the role of wind waves in driving the expansion of interior marsh ponds, through lateral erosion of marsh edges surrounding the ponds. Here, we propose an additional feedback between sea level rise, increasing marsh inundation, and decreasing marsh soil strength, that further contributes to marsh erosion and pond expansion. Our field measurements in the Blackwater marshes (Maryland, USA), a micro-tidal marsh system with organic-rich soils, indicates that (1) an increase in tidal inundation time of the marsh surface above a certain threshold (around 50 % of the time) is associated with a substantial loss of strength of the surficial soils; and (2) this decrease in soil strength is strongly related to the amount of belowground vegetation biomass, which is also found to decrease with increasing tidal inundation at pond bottoms, the soil has a very low strength. Our finding of decreasing marsh soil strength along a spatial gradient of increasing marsh inundation coincides with a gradient of increasing historical mash loss by pond expansion, suggesting that feedbacks between sea level rise, increasing marsh inundation and decreasing marsh soil strength contribute to amplify marsh erosion and pond expansion.