Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1863
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1863
19 May 2025
 | 19 May 2025

Can we reliably estimate precipitation with high resolution during disastrously large floods?

Jan Szturc, Anna Jurczyk, Katarzyna Ośródka, Agnieszka Kurcz, Magdalena Szaton, Mariusz Figurski, and Robert Pyrc

Abstract. A huge and dangerous flood occurred in September 2024 in the upper and middle Odra river basin, including mountainous areas in south-western Poland. The widespread precipitation lasted about four days, reaching more than 200 mm daily. In order to verify the possibilities of precise estimation of the precipitation field, different measurement techniques were analysed: rain gauge data, weather radar-based, satellite-based, non-conventional (CML-based) and multi-source estimates. Apart from real-time and near real-time data, later available reanalyses based on satellite information (IMERG, PDIR-Now) and numerical mesoscale model simulations (ERA5, WRF) were also examined. Manual rain gauge data for daily accumulations and multi-source RainGRS estimates for hourly accumulations were used as references to evaluate the reliability of the various techniques for measurements and estimation of precipitation accumulations. Statistical analyses and visual comparisons were carried out. Among the data available in real time the best results were found for rain gauge measurements, radar data adjusted to rain gauges, and RainGRS estimates. Fairly good reliability was achieved by non-conventional CML-based measurements. In terms of offline reanalyses, mesoscale model simulations also demonstrated reasonably good agreement with reference precipitation, while poorer results were obtained by all satellite-based estimates except the IMERG.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

21 Oct 2025
Can we reliably estimate precipitation with high resolution during disastrously large floods?
Jan Szturc, Anna Jurczyk, Katarzyna Ośródka, Agnieszka Kurcz, Magdalena Szaton, Mariusz Figurski, and Robert Pyrc
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 5405–5427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5405-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Jan Szturc, Anna Jurczyk, Katarzyna Ośródka, Agnieszka Kurcz, Magdalena Szaton, Mariusz Figurski, and Robert Pyrc

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1863', Nicolas Velasquez, 03 Jul 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jan Szturc, 01 Aug 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1863', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Jul 2025
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Jan Szturc, 01 Aug 2025
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1863', Anonymous Referee #3, 11 Jul 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC3', Jan Szturc, 01 Aug 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1863', Nicolas Velasquez, 03 Jul 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jan Szturc, 01 Aug 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1863', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Jul 2025
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Jan Szturc, 01 Aug 2025
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1863', Anonymous Referee #3, 11 Jul 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC3', Jan Szturc, 01 Aug 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (further review by editor) (01 Aug 2025) by Serena Ceola
AR by Jan Szturc on behalf of the Authors (01 Aug 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (26 Aug 2025) by Serena Ceola
AR by Jan Szturc on behalf of the Authors (27 Aug 2025)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

21 Oct 2025
Can we reliably estimate precipitation with high resolution during disastrously large floods?
Jan Szturc, Anna Jurczyk, Katarzyna Ośródka, Agnieszka Kurcz, Magdalena Szaton, Mariusz Figurski, and Robert Pyrc
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 5405–5427, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5405-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-5405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Jan Szturc, Anna Jurczyk, Katarzyna Ośródka, Agnieszka Kurcz, Magdalena Szaton, Mariusz Figurski, and Robert Pyrc
Jan Szturc, Anna Jurczyk, Katarzyna Ośródka, Agnieszka Kurcz, Magdalena Szaton, Mariusz Figurski, and Robert Pyrc

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
During the flooding of the Oder River in Sep 2024, daily rainfall exceeded 200 mm. The reliability of high-resolution rainfall estimates available in real time was assessed: from rain gauges, radars, satellites, unconventional & multi-source, also reanalyses. Rain gauges, adjusted radar & multi-source estimates showed the highest accuracy, unconventional methods slightly lower. Numerical weather prediction models still offered reasonable reliability, but satellite estimates were less effective.
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