Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1495
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1495
20 Sep 2024
 | 20 Sep 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

The dynamics of peak head responses at Dutch canal dikes and the impact of climate change

Bart Strijker and Matthijs Kok

Abstract. The  management of water and flood risk levels in low-lying polder regions depends on the performance of canal dikes. Heavy rainfall can lead to peak hydraulic heads within the dikes affecting their stability, which can induce dike breaches. Variations in head responses and head statistics are both relevant for regional flood risk analysis of canal dike systems. This study examined the dynamics of peak heads in canal dikes on a national scale using time series models calibrated on observed heads. Various model structures are evaluated and a nonlinear model performed the best. These models were used to simulate long-term head time series. Subsequently, dike clusters were identified based on the coincidence of peak heads, allowing for the identification of dikes where peaks are caused by (dis)similar types of rainfall events. The differences and similarities in peak head response were related to physical dike characteristics. While no single significant relationship emerged, the soil type combined with the width of the dike appears to be important factors influencing the variation in head responses. However, the presence of the same soil type and dike widths in multiple clusters indicates that these characteristics do not yield a definitive outcome for the head response. Moreover, peak head statistics across various dikes were derived and indicated that extreme and yearly load conditions are relatively close to each other, with a median decimation height of only 15 centimeters. The head statistics are affected by climate change, characterized by increasing winter precipitation and summer evaporation. By 2100, extreme peak heads are expected to occur between 3 times less and 8 times more frequently, depending on the climate scenario and the type of canal dike.

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Bart Strijker and Matthijs Kok

Status: open (until 01 Nov 2024)

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Bart Strijker and Matthijs Kok
Bart Strijker and Matthijs Kok

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Short summary
This study examines how hydraulic head levels in canal dikes respond to heavy rainfall, potentially causing instabilities and flooding. Using time series models and simulating long-term head levels, we identified clusters of dikes where head peaks are driven by similar rainfall events. Statistical analyses show that extreme and yearly conditions are close. However, extreme conditions are expected to become more frequent due to climate change, though some dikes will be less affected than others.