the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Abstract. This study introduces a new approach to multi-hazard risk assessment, leveraging hypergraph theory to model the interconnected risks posed by cascading natural hazards. Traditional single-hazard risk models fail to account for the complex interrelationships and compounding effects of multiple simultaneous or sequential hazards. By conceptualising risks within a hypergraph framework, our model overcomes these limitations, enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard interactions and their impacts on infrastructure. We apply this model to the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal as a case study, demonstrating its ability to simulate the primary and secondary effects of the earthquake on buildings and roads across the whole earthquake-affected area. The model predicts the overall pattern of earthquake-induced building damage and landslide impacts, albeit with a tendency towards over-prediction. Our findings underscore the potential of the hypergraph approach for multi-hazard risk assessment, offering advances in rapid computation and scenario exploration for cascading geo-hazards. This approach could provide valuable insights for disaster risk reduction and humanitarian contingency planning, where anticipation of large-scale trends is often more important than prediction of detailed impacts.
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