A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of Marine Cloud Brightening Climate Intervention

Abstract. A modeling protocol is introduced (defined by a series of model simulations with specified model output). The protocol is designed to improve understanding of climate impacts from Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) Climate Intervention. The model simulations are not intended to assess consequences from a realistic MCB deployment intended to achieve specific climate targets but instead to expose responses produced by MCB interventions in 6 regions with pervasive cloud systems that are often considered as candidate regions for such a deployment. A calibration step involving simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures is first used to identify a common forcing, and then coupled simulations with forcing in individual regions and combinations of regions are used to examine climate impacts. Synthetic estimates constructed by superposing responses from simulations with forcing in individual regions are considered as a means to approximate the climate impacts produced when MCB interventions are introduced in multiple regions.

A few results comparing simulations from 3 modern climate models (CESM2, E3SMv2, UKESM1) are used to illustrate similarities and differences between model behavior and the utility of estimates of MCB climate responses that have been synthesized by summing responses introduced in individual regions. There are substantial differences in the cloud responses to aerosol injections between models, but the models often show strong similarities in precipitation and surface temperature response signatures when forcing is imposed with similar amplitudes in common regions.