Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2806
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2806
14 Dec 2023
 | 14 Dec 2023

Future reduction of cold extremes over East Asia due to thermodynamic and dynamic warming

Donghuan Li, Tianjun Zhou, Youcun Qi, Liwei Zou, Chao Li, Wenxia Zhang, and Xiaolong Chen

Abstract. Cold extremes have large impacts on human society. Understanding the physical processes dominating the changes of cold extremes is crucial for a reliable projection of future climate change. The observed cold extremes have been decreased during last several decades and this trend will continue under the future global warming. Here, we quantitatively identify the contributions of dynamic (changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation) and thermodynamic (rising temperatures resulting from global warming) effects to East Asian cold extremes in the past several decades and in a future warm climate by using two sets of large ensemble simulation of climate models. We show that the dynamic component accounts for over 80 % of the cold-month (coldest 5 % boreal winter months) surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly in the past five decades. However, in a future warm climate, the thermodynamic change is the main contributor to the decreases in the intensity and occurrence probability of East Asian cold extremes, while the dynamic change is also contributive. The intensity of East Asian cold extremes will decrease by around 5℃ at the end of the 21st century, in which the thermodynamic (dynamic) change contributes approximately 75 % (25 %). The present-day (1986–2005) East Asian cold extremes will almost never occur after around 2035, and this will happen eight years later due solely to thermodynamic change. The upward trend of a positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern dominates the changes in the dynamic component. The finding provides a useful reference for policymakers in climate change adaptation activities.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Donghuan Li, Tianjun Zhou, Youcun Qi, Liwei Zou, Chao Li, Wenxia Zhang, and Xiaolong Chen

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2806', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Jan 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Donghuan Li, 14 Apr 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2806', Anonymous Referee #2, 21 Jan 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Donghuan Li, 14 Apr 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2806', Anonymous Referee #3, 02 Feb 2024
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Donghuan Li, 14 Apr 2024

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2806', Anonymous Referee #1, 08 Jan 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Donghuan Li, 14 Apr 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2806', Anonymous Referee #2, 21 Jan 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Donghuan Li, 14 Apr 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2806', Anonymous Referee #3, 02 Feb 2024
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Donghuan Li, 14 Apr 2024
Donghuan Li, Tianjun Zhou, Youcun Qi, Liwei Zou, Chao Li, Wenxia Zhang, and Xiaolong Chen
Donghuan Li, Tianjun Zhou, Youcun Qi, Liwei Zou, Chao Li, Wenxia Zhang, and Xiaolong Chen

Viewed

Total article views: 521 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
386 106 29 521 37 19 18
  • HTML: 386
  • PDF: 106
  • XML: 29
  • Total: 521
  • Supplement: 37
  • BibTeX: 19
  • EndNote: 18
Views and downloads (calculated since 14 Dec 2023)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 14 Dec 2023)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 516 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 516 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 12 Jun 2024
Download
Short summary
Two sets of climate model simulations are used to investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic factors to future change of cold extreme in East Asia. Dynamic factor accounted for over 80% of cold-month temperature anomalies in past 50 years. The intensity of cold extreme is expected to decrease by 5℃, with thermodynamic factor contributing about 75% by the end of the 21st century. Changes in dynamic factor are driven by an upward trend of positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern.