Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-111
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-111
20 Feb 2023
 | 20 Feb 2023
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales: a methodological review

Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius

Abstract. Persistence is an important concept in meteorology. It refers to surface weather or the atmospheric circulation either remaining in approximately the same state (stationarity) or repeatedly occupying the same state (recurrence) over some prolonged period of time. Persistence can be found at many different timescales; however, the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is especially relevant in terms of impacts and atmospheric predictability. For these reasons, S2S persistence has been attracting increasing attention by the scientific community. The dynamics responsible for persistence and their potential evolution under climate change are a notable focus of active research. However, one important challenge facing the community is how to define persistence, from both a qualitative and quantitative perspective. Despite a general agreement on the concept, many different definitions and perspectives have been proposed over the years, among which it is not always easy to find one’s way. The purpose of this review is to present and discuss existing concepts of weather persistence, associated methodologies and physical interpretations. In particular, we call attention to the fact that persistence can be defined as a global or as a local property of a system, with important implications in terms of methods but also impacts. We also highlight the importance of timescale and similarity metric selection, and illustrate some of the concepts using the example of summertime atmospheric circulation over Western Europe.

Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius

Status: open (until 03 Apr 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-111', Anonymous Referee #1, 24 Feb 2023 reply
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Alexandre Tuel, 27 Mar 2023 reply

Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius

Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius

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Short summary
Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales has been a topic of research since the early days of meteorology. Stationary or recurrent behaviour are common features of weather dynamics, and are strongly related to fundamental physical processes, weather predictability and surface weather impacts. In this review, we propose a typology for the broad concepts related to persistence and discuss various methods that have been used to characterise persistence in weather data.