Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1052
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1052
08 Jun 2023
 | 08 Jun 2023

Multidecadal ozone trends in China and implications for human health and crop yields: A hybrid approach combining chemical transport model and machine learning

Jia Mao, Amos P. K. Tai, David H. Y. Yung, Tiangang Yuan, Kong T. Chau, and Zhaozhong Feng

Abstract. Surface ozone (O3) is well known to pose significant threats to both human health and crop production worldwide. However, a multi-decadal assessment of O3 impacts on public health and crop yields in China is lacking due to insufficient long-term continuous O3 observations. In this study, we used a machine learning (ML) algorithm to correct the biases of O3 concentrations simulated by the chemical transport model from 1981–2019 by integrating multi-source datasets. The ML-enabled bias correction offers improved performance in reproducing observed O3 concentrations, and thus further improves our estimates of O3 impacts on human health and crop yields. Our results show that a warm-season increasing trend of O3 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surroundings (BTHs), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Sichuan Basin (SCB) and Pearl River Delta (PRD) regions are 0.32 μg m–3 yr–1, 0.63 μg m–3 yr–1, 0.84 μg m–3 yr–1, and 0.81 μg m–3 yr–1 from 1981 to 2019, respectively. In more recent years, O3 concentrations experience more fluctuations in the four major regions. Our results show that only BTHs have a perceptible increasing trend of 0.81 μg m–3 yr–1 during 2013–2019. Meteorological factors play important roles in modulating the interannual variability of surface O3, wherein synoptic systems (e.g., high-pressure system, Western Pacific subtropical high, tropical cyclone) are closely related to the spatiotemporal distribution of regional O3 via influencing regional weather conditions and transport processes. The estimated annual all-cause premature deaths induced by O3 increased from ~55,900 in 1981 to ~162,000 in 2019 with an increasing trend of ~2,980 deaths yr–1. The annual premature deaths related to respiratory and cardiovascular disease are ~34,200 and ~40,300 in 1998, and ~26,500 and ~79,000 in 2019, having a rate of change of –546 and +1,770 deaths yr–1 during 1998–2019, respectively. The estimated annual crop relative yield loss (RYL) for wheat, rice, soybean, and maize is 3.3 %, 5.5 %, 10.6 %, and 2.6 % in 1981, and increases to 5.9 %, 6.8 %, 15.1 %, and 4.1 % in 2019, respectively. The average annual crop RYL from 1981 to 2019 for wheat, rice, soybean, and maize range between 1.1–7.2 %, 2.7–9.4 %, 6.3–24.8 %, and 0.8–7.4 %, respectively, using different concentration-based metrics. Our study, for the first time, used ML to provide a robust dataset of O3 concentrations over the past four decades in China, enabling a long-term evaluation of O3-induced crop losses and health impacts. These findings are expected to fill the gap in the long-term O3 trend and impact assessment in China.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

11 Jan 2024
Multidecadal ozone trends in China and implications for human health and crop yields: a hybrid approach combining a chemical transport model and machine learning
Jia Mao, Amos P. K. Tai, David H. Y. Yung, Tiangang Yuan, Kong T. Chau, and Zhaozhong Feng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 345–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-345-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-345-2024, 2024
Short summary
Jia Mao, Amos P. K. Tai, David H. Y. Yung, Tiangang Yuan, Kong T. Chau, and Zhaozhong Feng

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1052', Anonymous Referee #1, 07 Jul 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1052', Anonymous Referee #2, 10 Jul 2023
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1052', Jia Mao, 13 Sep 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1052', Anonymous Referee #1, 07 Jul 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1052', Anonymous Referee #2, 10 Jul 2023
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1052', Jia Mao, 13 Sep 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Jia Mao on behalf of the Authors (13 Sep 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (15 Sep 2023) by Leiming Zhang
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (18 Sep 2023)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (07 Oct 2023)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (08 Oct 2023) by Leiming Zhang
AR by Jia Mao on behalf of the Authors (07 Nov 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes 
EF by Polina Shvedko (08 Nov 2023)  Manuscript   Supplement 
ED: Publish as is (16 Nov 2023) by Leiming Zhang
AR by Jia Mao on behalf of the Authors (20 Nov 2023)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

11 Jan 2024
Multidecadal ozone trends in China and implications for human health and crop yields: a hybrid approach combining a chemical transport model and machine learning
Jia Mao, Amos P. K. Tai, David H. Y. Yung, Tiangang Yuan, Kong T. Chau, and Zhaozhong Feng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 345–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-345-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-345-2024, 2024
Short summary
Jia Mao, Amos P. K. Tai, David H. Y. Yung, Tiangang Yuan, Kong T. Chau, and Zhaozhong Feng
Jia Mao, Amos P. K. Tai, David H. Y. Yung, Tiangang Yuan, Kong T. Chau, and Zhaozhong Feng

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Short summary
The machine learning approach greatly improved the performance of O3 concentrations simulated by the chemical transport model. The bias-corrected data show that only the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has a perceptible increasing trend of 0.81 μg m–3 yr–1 during 2013–2019. O3-induced annual all-cause premature deaths increase from ~55,900 in 1981 to ~162,000 in 2019. The estimated relative yield losses for wheat, rice, soybean, and maize increased to 24.2, 17.5, 16.3, and 9.8 % in 2019.