Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1513
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1513
 
16 Jan 2023
16 Jan 2023
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Global downscaled projections for climate impacts research (GDPCIR): preserving extremes for modeling future climate impacts

Diana R. Gergel1, Steven B. Malevich2, Kelly E. McCusker2, Emile Tenezakis2, Michael T. Delgado2, Meredith A. Fish3, and Robert E. Kopp3 Diana R. Gergel et al.
  • 1BlackRock, 601 Union Street, Seattle, WA 98101 USA
  • 2Rhodium Group, 5 Columbus Circle, New York, NY 10019 USA
  • 3Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, 610 Taylor Road, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA

Abstract. Global climate models are important tools for understanding the climate system and how it is projected to evolve under scenario-driven emissions pathways. Their output is widely used in climate impacts research for modeling the current and future effects of climate change. However, climate model output remains coarse in relation to the high-resolution climate data needed for climate impacts studies, and it also exhibits biases relative to observational data. Treatment of the distribution tails is a key challenge in existing downscaled climate datasets available at a global scale; many of these datasets used quantile mapping techniques that were known to dampen or amplify trends in the tails. In this study, we apply the trend-preserving Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) bias-adjustment method (Cannon et al., 2015) and develop a new downscaling method called the Quantile-Preserving Localized-Analog Downscaling (QPLAD) method that also preserves trends in the distribution tails. Both methods are integrated into a transparent and reproducible software pipeline, which we apply to global, daily model output for surface variables (maximum and minimum temperature and total precipitation) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments (O’Neill et al., 2016) for the historical experiment and four future emissions scenarios ranging from aggressive mitigation to no mitigation: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 (Riahi et al., 2017). We use European Centre for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 (Hersbach et al., 2018) temperature and precipitation reanalysis data as the reference dataset over the Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report (AR6) reference period, 1995–2014. We produce bias-adjusted and downscaled data over the historical period (1950–2014) and for four emissions pathways (2015–2100) for 25 models in total. The output dataset of this study is the Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research (GDPCIR), a global, daily, 0.25° horizontal-resolution product which is publicly hosted on Microsoft AI for Earth’s Planetary Computer (https://planetarycomputer.microsoft.com/dataset/group/cil-gdpcir/).

Diana R. Gergel et al.

Status: open (until 13 Mar 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1513', Damien Irving, 22 Jan 2023 reply

Diana R. Gergel et al.

Data sets

CIL Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research Diana R. Gergel, Steven B. Malevich, Kelly E. McCusker, Emile Tenezakis, Meredith Fish, Michael Delgado, Robert Kopp https://planetarycomputer.microsoft.com/dataset/group/cil-gdpcir

Model code and software

R/CIL GDPCIR dataset codebase Diana Gergel, Kelly McCusker, Brewster Malevich, Emile Tenezakis, Meredith Fish, Michael Delgado https://zenodo.org/record/6403794#.Y6t4sezMJAc

Dodola codebase Brewster Malevich; Diana Gergel; Emile Tenezakis; Michael Delgado https://zenodo.org/record/6383442#.Y6t5Y-zMJAc

Diana R. Gergel et al.

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Short summary
The freely available Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research (GDPCIR) dataset gives researchers a new tool for studying how future climate will evolve at a local or regional level, corresponding to the latest global climate model simulations prepared as part of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report. Those CMIP6 simulations represent an enormous advance in quality, detail, and scope that GDPCIR translates to the local level.