Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-641
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-641
29 Jul 2022
 | 29 Jul 2022

Towards an ensemble-based evaluation of land surface models in light of uncertain forcings and observations

Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Libo Wang, and Sian Kou-Giesbrecht

Abstract. Quantification of uncertainty in fluxes of energy, water, and CO2 simulated by land surface models (LSMs) remains a challenge. LSMs are typically driven with, and tuned for, a specified meteorological forcing data set and a specified set of geophysical fields. Here, using two data sets each for meteorological forcing and historical land cover reconstruction, as well as two model structures (with and without coupling of carbon and nitrogen cycles), the uncertainty in simulated results over the historical period is quantified for the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC) model. The resulting eight (2 x 2 x 2) equally probable model simulations are evaluated using an in-house model evaluation framework that uses multiple observations-based data sets for a range of quantities. Among the primary global energy, water, and carbon related fluxes and state variables, simulated area burned, fire CO2 emissions, soil carbon mass, vegetation biomass, runoff, heterotrophic respiration, gross primary productivity, and sensible heat flux show the largest spread across the eight simulations relative to their mean. Simulated net atmosphere-land CO2 flux, which is considered a critical determinant of the performance of LSMs, is found to be largely independent of the simulated pre-industrial vegetation and soil carbon mass. This indicates that models can provide reliable estimates of the strength of the land carbon sink despite biases in carbon stocks. Results show that evaluating an ensemble of model results against multiple observations allows to disentangle model deficiencies from uncertainties in model inputs, observation-based data, and model configuration.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

06 Apr 2023
Towards an ensemble-based evaluation of land surface models in light of uncertain forcings and observations
Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Libo Wang, and Sian Kou-Giesbrecht
Biogeosciences, 20, 1313–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary

Vivek K. Arora et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-641', Anonymous Referee #1, 26 Aug 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply to Referee #1', Vivek Arora, 07 Sep 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-641', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Sep 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply to Referee #2', Vivek Arora, 14 Sep 2022

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-641', Anonymous Referee #1, 26 Aug 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply to Referee #1', Vivek Arora, 07 Sep 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-641', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Sep 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply to Referee #2', Vivek Arora, 14 Sep 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (17 Sep 2022) by Ben Bond-Lamberty
AR by Vivek Arora on behalf of the Authors (09 Nov 2022)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (10 Nov 2022) by Ben Bond-Lamberty
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (14 Nov 2022)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (23 Nov 2022)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (21 Dec 2022) by Ben Bond-Lamberty
AR by Vivek Arora on behalf of the Authors (02 Feb 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (07 Feb 2023) by Ben Bond-Lamberty
AR by Vivek Arora on behalf of the Authors (20 Feb 2023)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

06 Apr 2023
Towards an ensemble-based evaluation of land surface models in light of uncertain forcings and observations
Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Libo Wang, and Sian Kou-Giesbrecht
Biogeosciences, 20, 1313–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary

Vivek K. Arora et al.

Vivek K. Arora et al.

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Short summary
The behaviour of natural systems is now very often represented through mathematical models. These models represent our understanding of how the nature works. Of course, the nature doesn't care about our understanding. Since our understanding is not perfect, evaluating models is challenging and there are uncertainties. This manuscript illustrates this uncertainty for land models and argues that evaluating models in the light of uncertainty in various components provides useful information.