Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-48
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-48
 
27 Apr 2022
27 Apr 2022
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Extreme wet-cold compound events investigation under climate change in Greece

Iason Markantonis1,2, Diamando Vlachogiannis1, Athanasios Sfetsos1, and Ioannis Kioutsioukis2 Iason Markantonis et al.
  • 1Environmental Research Laboratory, NCSR “Demokritos”, 15341 Agia Paraskevi, Greece
  • 2University of Patras, Department of Physics, University Campus 26504 Rio, Patras, Greece

Abstract. This paper aims to study wet-cold compound events (WCCEs) over Greece for the wet and cold season November–April. WCCEs are divided in two different compound events (TX-RR) and (TN-RR) and two different approaches using fixed (RR over 20 mm/day and Temperature under 0 °C) and percentile (RR over 95th and Temperature under 5th) thresholds. Observational data from the Hellenic National Meteorology Service (HNMS) and simulation data from reanalysis and EUROCORDEX models were used in the study for the historical period 1980–2004. Simulation datasets from projection models were employed for the near future period (2025–2049) to study the impact of climate change on the occurrence of WCCEs under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Following data processing and validation of the models, the potential changes in the distribution of WCCEs in the future were investigated based on the projected and historical simulations. WCCEs determined by fixed thresholds were mostly found over high altitudes with a future tendency to reduce particularly under RCP 8.5. On the other hand, WCCEs obtained with percentile thresholds, were distributed mostly in Eastern Greece and Crete while their changes differed significantly among models.

Iason Markantonis et al.

Status: open (until 23 Jun 2022)

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  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-48', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 May 2022 reply

Iason Markantonis et al.

Iason Markantonis et al.

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Short summary
This work focuses on the study of daily wet-cold compound events in Greece in the period November–April. We firstly study the historic period 1980–2004 in which we validate projection models with observations. Then we compare the model results with future period 2025–2049 rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 scenarios. The aim of the study is to calculae the probability of the events and to locate the areas where those are higher and how the probabilities will change at the future.