Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-206
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-206
20 Apr 2022
 | 20 Apr 2022

Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels: An application to damage data of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami

Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley

Abstract. The present work proposes a simulation-based Bayesian method for parameter estimation and fragility model selection for mutually exclusive, and collectively exhaustive (MECE) damage states. This method uses adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) based on likelihood estimation using point-wise intensity values. It identifies the simplest model that fits the data best, among the set of viable fragility models considered. As a case-study, observed pairs of data for tsunami intensity and corresponding damage level from the central South Pacific tsunami on September 29, 2009, are used. The tsunami was triggered by an unprecedented earthquake doublet (Mw 8.1 and Mw 8.0) and seriously impacted numerous locations in the central South Pacific. Damage data related to 120 brick masonry residential buildings in American Samoa and Samoa islands were utilized. A six-tier damage scale was considered, using tsunami flow depth as the intensity measure.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

02 Mar 2023
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
Short summary

Fatemeh Jalayer et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-206', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Apr 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Fatemeh Jalayer, 17 May 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-206', Carmine Galasso, 24 Aug 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Fatemeh Jalayer, 16 Sep 2022

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-206', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Apr 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Fatemeh Jalayer, 17 May 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-206', Carmine Galasso, 24 Aug 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Fatemeh Jalayer, 16 Sep 2022

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (22 Oct 2022) by Animesh Gain
AR by Fatemeh Jalayer on behalf of the Authors (30 Nov 2022)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (20 Dec 2022) by Animesh Gain
RR by Carmine Galasso (06 Jan 2023)
ED: Publish as is (24 Jan 2023) by Animesh Gain
ED: Publish as is (24 Jan 2023) by Ira Didenkulova (Executive editor)
AR by Fatemeh Jalayer on behalf of the Authors (25 Jan 2023)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

02 Mar 2023
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
Short summary

Fatemeh Jalayer et al.

Model code and software

eurotsunamirisk/computeFrag: v.2021.08.06b-alpha (v.2021.08.06b-alpha) ETRiS - European Tsunami Risk Service https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5167276

Fatemeh Jalayer et al.

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation, and fragility model selection.