20 Apr 2022
20 Apr 2022

Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels: An application to damage data of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami

Fatemeh Jalayer1, Hossein Ebrahimian1, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos1, and Brendon Bradley2 Fatemeh Jalayer et al.
  • 1Department of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Naples 80125, Italy
  • 2Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand

Abstract. The present work proposes a simulation-based Bayesian method for parameter estimation and fragility model selection for mutually exclusive, and collectively exhaustive (MECE) damage states. This method uses adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) based on likelihood estimation using point-wise intensity values. It identifies the simplest model that fits the data best, among the set of viable fragility models considered. As a case-study, observed pairs of data for tsunami intensity and corresponding damage level from the central South Pacific tsunami on September 29, 2009, are used. The tsunami was triggered by an unprecedented earthquake doublet (Mw 8.1 and Mw 8.0) and seriously impacted numerous locations in the central South Pacific. Damage data related to 120 brick masonry residential buildings in American Samoa and Samoa islands were utilized. A six-tier damage scale was considered, using tsunami flow depth as the intensity measure.

Fatemeh Jalayer et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-206', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Apr 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Fatemeh Jalayer, 17 May 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-206', Carmine Galasso, 24 Aug 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Fatemeh Jalayer, 16 Sep 2022

Fatemeh Jalayer et al.

Model code and software

eurotsunamirisk/computeFrag: v.2021.08.06b-alpha (v.2021.08.06b-alpha) ETRiS - European Tsunami Risk Service

Fatemeh Jalayer et al.


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Short summary
Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of incurred losses. Empirical fragility modelling is based on observed tsunami intensity and damage data. Fragility curves for hierarchical damage levels are distinguished by their laminar shape; that is, the curves should not intersect. However, this condition is not satisfied automatically. We present a workflow for hierarchical fragility modelling, uncertainty propagation, and fragility model selection.