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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-206
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-206
20 Apr 2022
 | 20 Apr 2022

Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels: An application to damage data of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami

Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley

Abstract. The present work proposes a simulation-based Bayesian method for parameter estimation and fragility model selection for mutually exclusive, and collectively exhaustive (MECE) damage states. This method uses adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) based on likelihood estimation using point-wise intensity values. It identifies the simplest model that fits the data best, among the set of viable fragility models considered. As a case-study, observed pairs of data for tsunami intensity and corresponding damage level from the central South Pacific tsunami on September 29, 2009, are used. The tsunami was triggered by an unprecedented earthquake doublet (Mw 8.1 and Mw 8.0) and seriously impacted numerous locations in the central South Pacific. Damage data related to 120 brick masonry residential buildings in American Samoa and Samoa islands were utilized. A six-tier damage scale was considered, using tsunami flow depth as the intensity measure.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

02 Mar 2023
Empirical tsunami fragility modelling for hierarchical damage levels
Fatemeh Jalayer, Hossein Ebrahimian, Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, and Brendon Bradley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 909–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-909-2023, 2023
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Assessing tsunami fragility and the related uncertainties is crucial in the evaluation of...
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