Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1177
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1177
09 Dec 2022
 | 09 Dec 2022

Deep Learning for Verification of Earth-System Parametrisation of Water Bodies

Tom Kimpson, Margarita Choulga, Matthew Chantry, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Peter Dueben, and Tim Palmer

Abstract. About 2/3 of all densely populated areas (i.e. at least 300 inhabitants per km2) around the globe are situated within a 9 km radius of a permanent waterbody (i.e. inland water or sea/ocean coast), since inland water sustains the vast majority of human activities. Water bodies exchange mass and energy with the atmosphere and need to be accurately simulated in numerical weather prediction and climate modelling as they strongly influence the lower boundary conditions such as skin temperatures, turbulent latent and sensible heat fluxes and moisture availability near the surface. All the non-ocean water (resolved and sub-grid lakes and coastal waters) are represented in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, by the Fresh-water Lake (FLake) parametrisation, which treats ~1/3 of the land. It is a continuous enterprise to update the surface parametrization schemes and their input fields to better represent small-scale processes. It is, however, difficult to quickly determine both the accuracy of an updated parametrisation, and the added value gained for the purposes of numerical modelling. The aim of our work is to quickly and automatically assess the benefits of an updated lake parametrisation making use of a neural network regression model trained to simulate satellite observed surface skin temperatures. We deploy this tool to determine the accuracy of recent upgrades to the FLake parametrisation, namely the improved permanent lake cover and the capacity to represent seasonally varying water bodies (i.e. ephemeral lakes). We show that for grid-cells where the lake fields have been updated, the prediction accuracy in the land surface temperature improves by 0.45 K on average, whilst for the subset of points where the lakes have been exchanged for bare ground (or vice versa) the improvement is 1.12 K. We also show that updates to the glacier cover improve further the prediction accuracy by 0.14 K. The inclusion of seasonal water is shown to be particularly effective for grid points which are highly time variable, generally improving the simulation accuracy by ~1 K. The neural network regression model has proven to be useful and easily adaptable to assess unforeseen impacts of ancillary datasets, also detecting inappropriate changes of high vegetation to bare ground, which would lead to decreased the skin temperature simulation accuracy by 0.49 K, proving to be a valuable support to model development.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

22 Dec 2023
Deep learning for quality control of surface physiographic fields using satellite Earth observations
Tom Kimpson, Margarita Choulga, Matthew Chantry, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Peter Dueben, and Tim Palmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4661–4685, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4661-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4661-2023, 2023
Short summary

Tom Kimpson et al.

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1177', Ekaterina Kurzeneva, 16 Jan 2023
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1177', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1177', Anonymous Referee #2, 10 Feb 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1177', Ekaterina Kurzeneva, 16 Jan 2023
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1177', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Jan 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-1177', Anonymous Referee #2, 10 Feb 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (07 Jul 2023) by Wouter Buytaert
AR by Tom Kimpson on behalf of the Authors (14 Aug 2023)  Author's response   Manuscript 
EF by Svenja Lange (21 Aug 2023)  Author's tracked changes 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (13 Sep 2023) by Wouter Buytaert
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (09 Oct 2023)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (11 Oct 2023) by Wouter Buytaert
AR by Tom Kimpson on behalf of the Authors (21 Oct 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes 
EF by Sarah Buchmann (24 Oct 2023)  Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (25 Oct 2023) by Wouter Buytaert
AR by Tom Kimpson on behalf of the Authors (03 Nov 2023)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

22 Dec 2023
Deep learning for quality control of surface physiographic fields using satellite Earth observations
Tom Kimpson, Margarita Choulga, Matthew Chantry, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Peter Dueben, and Tim Palmer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4661–4685, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4661-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4661-2023, 2023
Short summary

Tom Kimpson et al.

Tom Kimpson et al.

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Lakes play an important role when we try to explain and predict the weather. More accurate and up-to-date description of lakes all around the world for the numerical models is a continuous task. However, it is difficult to assess the impact of updated lake description within a weather prediction system. In this work we develop a method to quickly and automatically define how, where, and when updated lake description affect weather prediction.