Hydrologic models help predict floods and droughts, but how we calibrate them changes what they get right. Across 47 model structures and 10 diverse catchments, we tested how 8 metrics shape the reproduction of 15 streamflow features, from runoff ratios to high and low flows. Metric choice often mattered more than model structure, yet no single metric is best for all flow conditions. We provide guidance on metric strengths and weaknesses to help match the calibration metric to the study purpose.

Predicting the start of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea is important because it affects rainfall, farming, and flood risk across East Asia, but it is difficult to forecast far in advance. We tested a new way to define monsoon onset based on a lasting shift in large-scale weather patterns rather than a single wind threshold. Using seasonal forecast data, we found that this approach improves prediction skill and gives a more physically consistent picture of monsoon onset.