Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-444
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-444
04 Feb 2026
 | 04 Feb 2026

Middle atmosphere chemical and dynamical effects in the CCMI-2022 stratospheric aerosol injection scenario

Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, David Plummer, Shingo Watanabe, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Gabriel Chiodo, Daniele Visioni, Sandro Vattioni, Eugene Rozanov, Ewa M. Bednarz, Béatrice Jossé, Yousuke Yamashita, and Thomas Peter

Abstract. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) could slow surface warming and help prevent some irreversible tipping points in the climate system. However, potential side effects include changes in stratospheric ozone and warming due to infrared ab sorption by the aerosol, which can alter surface ultraviolet radiation, hydrology, and weather through stratosphere-troposphere coupling. Previous multi-model studies have reported large model discrepancies regarding these effects. Here we present results from an experiment within the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Phase 2 (CCMI-2022), designed to constrain inter-model uncertainties by applying a common stratospheric aerosol forcing to five chemistry-climate models using an SAI scenario offsetting all surface warming after 2025 in a moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario. All models show a global total column ozone decrease in the first three decades of no more than ∼10 DU relative to a no-SAI case. Despite sizable differences in stratospheric heating, the models yield a qualitatively similar pattern of ozone redistribution. Changes in key processes, such as the ClOx activation and NOx passivation, and the strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, are widely robust across all models, though their relative importance and contribution to ozone changes varies considerably. In three of the models, we separate chemical and dynamical contributions, and find significant nonlinearities from feedbacks between chemistry and dynamics, highlighting where model development and sensitivity experiments are most needed to advance the understanding of the middle atmosphere in future mitigation scenarios involving SAI.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The peer-review process was guided by an independent editor, and the authors also have no other competing interests to declare.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

11 Aug 2026
Middle atmosphere chemical and dynamical effects in the CCMI-2022 stratospheric aerosol injection scenario
Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, David Plummer, Shingo Watanabe, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Gabriel Chiodo, Daniele Visioni, Sandro Vattioni, Eugene Rozanov, Ewa Monika Bednarz, Béatrice Josse, Yousuke Yamashita, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 11207–11234, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-11207-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-11207-2026, 2026
Short summary
Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, David Plummer, Shingo Watanabe, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Gabriel Chiodo, Daniele Visioni, Sandro Vattioni, Eugene Rozanov, Ewa M. Bednarz, Béatrice Jossé, Yousuke Yamashita, and Thomas Peter

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-444', Anonymous Referee #1, 31 Mar 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-444', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 May 2026
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-444', Andrin Jörimann, 01 Jun 2026

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-444', Anonymous Referee #1, 31 Mar 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-444', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 May 2026
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-444', Andrin Jörimann, 01 Jun 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Andrin Jörimann on behalf of the Authors (01 Jun 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (03 Jun 2026) by John Plane
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (15 Jun 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (18 Jun 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (25 Jun 2026) by John Plane
AR by Andrin Jörimann on behalf of the Authors (26 Jun 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (05 Jul 2026) by John Plane
AR by Andrin Jörimann on behalf of the Authors (07 Jul 2026)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

11 Aug 2026
Middle atmosphere chemical and dynamical effects in the CCMI-2022 stratospheric aerosol injection scenario
Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, David Plummer, Shingo Watanabe, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Gabriel Chiodo, Daniele Visioni, Sandro Vattioni, Eugene Rozanov, Ewa Monika Bednarz, Béatrice Josse, Yousuke Yamashita, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 11207–11234, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-11207-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-11207-2026, 2026
Short summary
Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, David Plummer, Shingo Watanabe, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Gabriel Chiodo, Daniele Visioni, Sandro Vattioni, Eugene Rozanov, Ewa M. Bednarz, Béatrice Jossé, Yousuke Yamashita, and Thomas Peter

Data sets

CCMI-2022 post-processed model data Andrin Jörimann https://zenodo.org/records/18331211

Andrin Jörimann, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, David Plummer, Shingo Watanabe, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Gabriel Chiodo, Daniele Visioni, Sandro Vattioni, Eugene Rozanov, Ewa M. Bednarz, Béatrice Jossé, Yousuke Yamashita, and Thomas Peter

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Short summary
We study a future scenario where artificial stratospheric aerosol injections counter medium climate change, to understand possible negative side effects like ozone depletion. The injected aerosol layer is implemented uniformly in five climate models, which eliminates some uncertainty from model-specific aerosol evolution. The models agree well on where and how key thermodynamical (heating, circulation) and chemical processes change, however, the strength of the change varies considerably.
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