Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
A low-dimensional dynamical systems approach for ensemble design and interpretation in climate science
Francisco de Melo Viríssimoand David A. Stainforth
Abstract. The design and use of conceptual models have been a longstanding and successful practice of mathematicians and scientists to study and gain insights about complex phenomena in climate and beyond. Here, we demonstrate how low-dimensional dynamical systems can also be useful in the design and interpretation of climate model ensembles. We argue that, provided they possess a small number of key characteristics, such systems can serve as computationally inexpensive laboratories for investigating questions of ensemble methodology that would be difficult to explore systematically in comprehensive Earth System Models. To this end, we identify the characteristics required of informative low-dimensional systems, formalise a framework for their use, and illustrate the approach through a series of examples.
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This study shows that conceptual mathematical representations of complex climate models can help improve the way climate simulations are designed and understood. We identify the essential features these simplified systems need, propose a clear approach for using them, and demonstrate it through practical examples. Because they require far less computing power than full climate models, they provide an efficient way to test methods and gain insights that would otherwise be difficult to obtain.
This study shows that conceptual mathematical representations of complex climate models can help...
