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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4138</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>A low-dimensional dynamical systems approach for ensemble design and interpretation in climate science</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>de Melo Viríssimo</surname>
<given-names>Francisco</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2905-3478</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Stainforth</surname>
<given-names>David A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6476-733X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>24</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>21</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Francisco de Melo Viríssimo</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4138/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4138/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4138/egusphere-2026-4138.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4138/egusphere-2026-4138.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The design and use of conceptual models have been a longstanding and successful practice of mathematicians and scientists to study and gain insights about complex phenomena in climate and beyond. Here, we demonstrate how low-dimensional dynamical systems can also be useful in the design and interpretation of climate model ensembles. We argue that, provided they possess a small number of key characteristics, such systems can serve as computationally inexpensive laboratories for investigating questions of ensemble methodology that would be difficult to explore systematically in comprehensive Earth System Models. To this end, we identify the characteristics required of informative low-dimensional systems, formalise a framework for their use, and illustrate the approach through a series of examples.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="21"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Natural Environment Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/V011790/1</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>UK Research and Innovation</funding-source>
<award-id>UKRI282</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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