Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
To tip or not to tip
Reyk Börnerand Henk A. Dijkstra
Abstract. Tipping points have become a buzzword in Earth sciences, but ambiguous or overly narrow definitions of tipping are causing confusion around the concept. Agreeing on what tipping means, and whether a system tips or not, is important for robust science and communicating tipping risk. Based on a critical evaluation of existing tipping definitions, we propose a revised, general definition that characterizes a tipping event as a persistent nonlinear transition in forced systems. Our definition emphasizes both the phenomenology (observed time series) and cause (feedback mechanism) of a tipping event. Inspired by response theory, our proposition is compatible with more specific mathematical formulations while avoiding challenging notions such as bifurcations, equilibrium states, abruptness and irreversibility – making the definition testable also on transient dynamics in diverse complex systems under time-varying forcing. We showcase its practical use and limitations in a toy model and a case study of Earth system model data.
Received: 15 Jun 2026 – Discussion started: 26 Jun 2026
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Tipping points have become a popular concept in earth sciences and for communicating climate change risk. However, there is confusion about what tipping means, caused also by ambiguous definitions of tipping terminology. We propose and exemplify a revised tipping definition, focusing on the observed time series and underlying cause of a tipping event. Our proposition seeks to bridge between narrow mathematical and purely qualitative definitions that often remain unclear and difficult to test.
Tipping points have become a popular concept in earth sciences and for communicating climate...
