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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3507</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>To tip or not to tip</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Börner</surname>
<given-names>Reyk</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4593-7721</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dijkstra</surname>
<given-names>Henk A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>26</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>20</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Reyk Börner</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3507/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3507/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3507/egusphere-2026-3507.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3507/egusphere-2026-3507.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Tipping points have become a buzzword in Earth sciences, but ambiguous or overly narrow definitions of tipping are causing confusion around the concept. Agreeing on what tipping means, and whether a system tips or not, is important for robust science and communicating tipping risk. Based on a critical evaluation of existing tipping definitions, we propose a revised, general definition that characterizes a tipping event as a persistent nonlinear transition in forced systems. Our definition emphasizes both the phenomenology (observed time series) and cause (feedback mechanism) of a tipping event. Inspired by response theory, our proposition is compatible with more specific mathematical formulations while avoiding challenging notions such as bifurcations, equilibrium states, abruptness and irreversibility &amp;ndash; making the definition testable also on transient dynamics in diverse complex systems under time-varying forcing. We showcase its practical use and limitations in a toy model and a case study of Earth system model data.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="20"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme</funding-source>
<award-id>101137601</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>European Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>101055096</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
</back>
</article>