02 Apr 2026
| 02 Apr 2026
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Brief Communication: Rise of the Guadalupe River- A Multifaceted Post Event Analysis of the July 4, 2025, Flood in Central Texas
Abstract. The flash flooding across Central Texas on July 4th, 2025, caused more than 130 fatalities and property losses exceeding 20 billion dollars. The objective of this study is to diagnose the drivers of this catastrophic event and to analyze the temporal variability in forecasting flood inundation dynamics in the hours leading up to and during the event. Using the Operational National Water Model short-range streamflow forecast product, we generated 306 forecasted flood inundation maps between July 3rd and July 4th, 2025. For evaluation, we constructed an inundation extent benchmark derived from USGS high water marks. Both impact-based and pixel-based assessments are presented.
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