EGUsphere EGUsphere EGUsphere EGUsphere Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/egusphere-2026-1847 Brief Communication: Rise of the Guadalupe River- A Multifaceted Post Event Analysis of the July 4, 2025, Flood in Central Texas Baruah Anupal 1 Munasinghe Dinuke 1 Cohen Sagy https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3354-2864 1 Abdelkader Mohamed 2 Devi Dipsikha https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2387-3889 1 Chen Yixian https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7710-580X 1 Vergara Humberto 2 Department of Geography and Environment, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, USA IIHR – Hydroscience & Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa, USA 02 04 2026 2026 1 13 Copyright: © 2026 Anupal Baruah et al. 2026 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1847/ The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-1847/egusphere-2026-1847.pdf

<p style="font-weight: 400;">The flash flooding across Central Texas on July 4<sup>th</sup>, 2025, caused more than 130 fatalities and property losses exceeding 20 billion dollars. The objective of this study is to diagnose the drivers of this catastrophic event and to analyze the temporal variability in forecasting flood inundation dynamics in the hours leading up to and during the event. <span>Using the Operational National Water Model short-range streamflow forecast product, we generated 306 forecasted flood inundation maps between July 3<sup>rd</sup> and July 4<sup>th</sup>, 2025. For evaluation, we constructed an inundation extent benchmark derived from USGS high water marks. Both impact-based and pixel-based assessments are presented. </span>

 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NA22NWS4320003