Assessment and prediction of dust emissions, deposition and radiation forcing in Central Asia

Abstract. Dust aerosols regulate Earth's climate through radiative and cloud interactions. This study combines MERRA-2 reanalysis with CMIP6 models to quantify Central Asian dust-climate interactions (1980–2100). Four SSP scenarios reveal: 1) Three emission hotspots (Tarim Basin, Aral Sea, Gobi Desert; >15 μg·m⁻²·s⁻¹) with expanding deposition zones (>8 μg·m⁻²·s⁻¹); 2) Strong climate policy sensitivity, with SSP5-8.5 driving 94.9 % emission increases by 2100 versus 4.5 % fluctuations under SSP1-2.6; 3) SBDART-modeled vertical radiative dichotomy: top-of-atmosphere cooling (Caspian TOA < −10 W/m²) contrasts with spring atmospheric heating (+10.02 W/m²), inducing surface shortwave loss (−20 W/m²); 4) Site-specific heating extremes – Kashgar's spring radiative forcing peaks at 92.99 W/m² with 2.61 K/day heating, while Issyk-Kul shows autumn dominance (0.34 vs 0.08 K/day spring). The "three-source high-emission-sedimentation-expansion" pattern demonstrates dust transport dynamics, where 83 % of emitted particulates undergo trans-regional redistribution. Policy-driven emission variances highlight decarbonization's dust suppression potential (R²=0.89 between CO₂ forcing and dust flux). Radiative forcing vertical gradients explain 76 % of observed surface cooling variance through atmospheric energy reallocation. Seasonal heating asymmetries (4.25× inter-site differences) are mechanistically linked to terrain-circulation coupling, particularly the Pamir-Tian Shan vortex modulation. This multi-scale analysis establishes new constraints for arid-region aerosol-climate modeling, emphasizing the necessity of incorporating policy-sensitive dust parametrizations in next-generation Earth system models.