Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4348
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4348
25 Sep 2025
 | 25 Sep 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Historical and future changes and present-day uncertainties of ozone in China from CMIP6 models

Shuai Li, Hua Zhang, Qi Chen, Yonghang Chen, Qi An, Zhili Wang, and Xinping Wu

Abstract. Ozone (O3) contributes to global climate change and poses a direct threat to human health. This study analyzes historical and future changes, as well as current uncertainties, in surface O3 concentrations in China, based on CMIP6 and the Tracking Air Pollution in China (TAP) dataset. The results are as follows: (1) The Multi-Model Ensemble Mean (MME) of CMIP6 simulated O3 concentrations is higher during June–August (JJA), averaging 105 μg·m-3, and lowest during December–February (DJF) at 55 μg·m-3. (2) CMIP6 models generally underestimate O3 concentrations in most regions of China, with the most significant underestimation occurring in East China. (3) The MME-simulated O3 concentrations exhibit lower Bias, MAE, and RMSE over natural land surfaces compared to those over anthropogenic land surfaces. The Bias reaches its minimum under cloudy conditions and peaks under partly cloudy conditions. Furthermore, the Bias generally increases with rising PM2.5 concentrations, however, once PM2.5 exceeds a specific threshold, the Bias begins to decline. (4) Over the entire historical period, the MME simulates an increase of 39.3 μg·m-3 in the annual mean surface O3 concentration in China. (5) Under future SSP scenarios, MME projects generally increasing O3 under weak mitigation (SSP3-7.0), with East China rising by 26.9 %. Strong mitigation (SSP1-2.6) leads to widespread decreases, especially in Southwest and South China (>30 μg·m-3). (6) Differences in climate treatment, circulation, chemistry, and precursor emissions create substantial uncertainties, emphasizing the need to understand how emissions (including precursors and PM2.5), climate, and model processes jointly affect future O3 projections.

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Shuai Li, Hua Zhang, Qi Chen, Yonghang Chen, Qi An, Zhili Wang, and Xinping Wu

Status: open (until 06 Nov 2025)

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Shuai Li, Hua Zhang, Qi Chen, Yonghang Chen, Qi An, Zhili Wang, and Xinping Wu
Shuai Li, Hua Zhang, Qi Chen, Yonghang Chen, Qi An, Zhili Wang, and Xinping Wu

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Short summary
This study evaluates the uncertainties of CMIP6 models in simulating surface O3 over China, using the Tracking Air Pollution in China (TAP) dataset under varying temperature, cloud cover, land-surface types, and pollutant levels. Historical changes are analyzed to provide context, while future O3 projections are assessed under different SSPs. Comparison of CMIP6 models under SSP3-7.0 highlights sources of inter-model differences, providing insights for O3 prediction and control in China.
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