Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4253
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4253
02 Sep 2025
 | 02 Sep 2025

NoahPy: A differentiable Noah land surface model for simulating permafrost thermo-hydrology

Wenbiao Tian, Hu Yu, Shuping Zhao, Yuhe Cao, Wenjun Yi, Jiwei Xu, and Zhuotong Nan

Abstract. Accurately representing permafrost in Earth System Models is a grand challenge that creates major uncertainty. A promising path forward is to create hybrid models that synergize process-based physics with deep learning, but this is fundamentally hindered by the non-differentiable nature of traditional land surface models (LSMs), which are incompatible with modern AI workflows. To overcome this limitation, we present NoahPy, a fully differentiable LSM developed by reconstructing the Noah LSM’s governing partial differential equations into a process-encapsulated Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). We first demonstrate that NoahPy perfectly replicates the numerical behaviour of the modified Noah LSM, achieving Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficients above 0.99 for both soil temperature and liquid water. We then show that at a permafrost site, the calibrated NoahPy achieves robust simulation performance for for soil temperature (NSE > 0.9) and liquid water (NSE > 0.8). Critically, the differentiable workflow, when combined with the Adam optimizer, is significantly faster, more stable, and yields simulations with lower uncertainty compared to traditional SCE-UA calibration algorithm. NoahPy thus provides a foundational, "glass-box" framework that closes a key technical gap, enabling the development of the next generation of hybrid AI-physics models needed to more reliably predict the future of the cryosphere.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

06 Jan 2026
NoahPy: a differentiable Noah land surface model for simulating permafrost thermo-hydrology
Wenbiao Tian, Hu Yu, Shuping Zhao, Yuhe Cao, Wenjun Yi, Jiwei Xu, and Zhuotong Nan
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 57–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-57-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-57-2026, 2026
Short summary
Wenbiao Tian, Hu Yu, Shuping Zhao, Yuhe Cao, Wenjun Yi, Jiwei Xu, and Zhuotong Nan

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4253', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Sep 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Zhuotong Nan, 24 Oct 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4253', Anonymous Referee #2, 10 Oct 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Zhuotong Nan, 24 Oct 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4253', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Sep 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Zhuotong Nan, 24 Oct 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4253', Anonymous Referee #2, 10 Oct 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Zhuotong Nan, 24 Oct 2025

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Zhuotong Nan on behalf of the Authors (05 Nov 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (13 Nov 2025) by Lele Shu
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (18 Nov 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (23 Nov 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (24 Nov 2025) by Lele Shu
AR by Zhuotong Nan on behalf of the Authors (04 Dec 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (14 Dec 2025) by Lele Shu
AR by Zhuotong Nan on behalf of the Authors (15 Dec 2025)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

06 Jan 2026
NoahPy: a differentiable Noah land surface model for simulating permafrost thermo-hydrology
Wenbiao Tian, Hu Yu, Shuping Zhao, Yuhe Cao, Wenjun Yi, Jiwei Xu, and Zhuotong Nan
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 57–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-57-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-57-2026, 2026
Short summary
Wenbiao Tian, Hu Yu, Shuping Zhao, Yuhe Cao, Wenjun Yi, Jiwei Xu, and Zhuotong Nan
Wenbiao Tian, Hu Yu, Shuping Zhao, Yuhe Cao, Wenjun Yi, Jiwei Xu, and Zhuotong Nan

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Short summary
Accurately predicting how permafrost will thaw with land surface models is a grand challenge in Earth science. We created a new computer model by rebuilding a traditional physics model to work with artificial intelligence. Our results show this new approach is much faster and more reliable for tuning model parameters with data. This provides a better tool to build the next generation of climate models and improve predictions of permafrost's future.
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