Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3706
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3706
18 Sep 2025
 | 18 Sep 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Flood damage functions for rice: Synthesizing evidence and building data-driven models

Alina Bill-Weilandt, Nivedita Sairam, Dennis Wagenaar, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, Perrine Hamel, and David Lallemant

Abstract. Floods are a major cause of agricultural losses, yet flood damage models for crops are scarce, often lack validation, uncertainty estimates, and assessments of their performance in new regions. This study introduces CROPDAM-X, a framework for developing and evaluating flood damage models for crops, and applies it to rice. We compile and review 20 damage models from 12 countries, identifying key gaps and limitations. Using empirical survey data from Thailand and Myanmar, we develop a suite of models, including deterministic and probabilistic stage-damage functions, Bayesian regression, and Random Forest, based on key flood characteristics like water depth, duration, and plant growth stage. We assess predictive performance through cross-validation and test how well models trained in one region perform when applied to another. Our results show that model performance depends on complexity and context: Random Forest achieves the highest accuracy, while simpler models offer ease of use in data-scarce settings. The results also demonstrate the potential errors introduced by transferring models spatially, highlighting the need for diverse training data or local calibration. We present the most comprehensive review of flood damage models for rice to date and provide practical guidance on model selection and expected errors when transferring models across regions.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Alina Bill-Weilandt, Nivedita Sairam, Dennis Wagenaar, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, Perrine Hamel, and David Lallemant

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Alina Bill-Weilandt, Nivedita Sairam, Dennis Wagenaar, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, Perrine Hamel, and David Lallemant
Alina Bill-Weilandt, Nivedita Sairam, Dennis Wagenaar, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, Perrine Hamel, and David Lallemant

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Short summary
Flooding is a major cause of agricultural loss globally. We introduce a framework for developing and evaluating flood damage models for crops. The study presents the most comprehensive review of such models for rice to date and offers practical guidance on model selection and expected errors when transferring models across regions. We provide models and lookup tables that can be used in flood risk assessments in rice-producing regions.
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