Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3605
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3605
11 Aug 2025
 | 11 Aug 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).

A new look at the jet-storm track relationship in the North Pacific and North Atlantic

Nora Zilibotti, Heini Wernli, and Sebastian Schemm

Abstract. The western ocean boundaries of the North Pacific (NP) and North Atlantic (NA) set favourable conditions for upper-level jets and baroclinic weather systems that propagate downstream and form the storm tracks. Despite these similarities between the two ocean basins, distinct forcing mechanisms during the winter season give rise to differences in the jet intensity, structure, and variability, as well as in the storm track activity. In particular, the phenomenon of the NP midwinter suppression of the monthly averaged storm track activity sparked ongoing discussions about fundamental differences between jet-storm track interactions in the NP and NA. This study introduces an alternative method, which avoids monthly averaging, to study the relationship between the background jet core strength (U) and, as a measure of storm track activity, the eddy kinetic energy (EKE), both evaluated in the upper troposphere. With our approach, we find that the U-EKE relationship is remarkably consistent across the NP and NA, with previously observed differences largely attributable to the differing timescales of jet variability in the two basins. For our interpretation, the separate consideration of two distinct timescales is important: On seasonal timescales, baroclinic instability results in an increase of EKE with increasing U from summer to winter. In contrast, on sub-monthly timescales, particularly during winter, EKE decreases with increasing U, reflecting the effect of baroclinic conversion. Periods of enhanced baroclinic conversion lead to reduced baroclinicity (quantified by U) and high EKE, whereas periods of low baroclinic conversion are followed by high U and low EKE. In this framework, the NP midwinter suppression of monthly averaged EKE reflects that, in midwinter, U remains persistently high in the NP (because baroclinic conversion is suppressed) while EKE is reduced. In other words, in the NP, jet strength varies predominantly from month to month, whereas in the NA, it varies more within individual months such that the midwinter suppression of the monthly averaged storm track activity is less obvious in the NA. The observed U-EKE relationship implies that the jet core strength U alone cannot explain the EKE variability across seasons, and we reveal the additional importance of the jet width, which affects eddy characteristics. A reduced jet width likely plays a role in deforming and meridionally confining eddies, thereby reducing their baroclinic growth. For jets with comparable weak to moderate core strengths in summer and winter, the summertime jets tend to be narrower, and therefore EKE smaller. Similarly, very strong jets in winter are particularly narrow, which implies reduced EKE, supporting the observed U-EKE relationship in winter. Finally, cyclone composites show that the reduced EKE during strong jet episodes in winter is manifested by a reduction in the amplitude of the cyclones' surface pressure anomalies, and, in particular of their associated troughs and ridges. Therefore, the reduction of EKE with increasing U is not related to a decrease in cyclone frequency, but rather to a reduction in cyclone intensity and the associated upper-level wave pattern.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Weather and Climate Dynamics.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Nora Zilibotti, Heini Wernli, and Sebastian Schemm

Status: open (until 25 Sep 2025)

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Nora Zilibotti, Heini Wernli, and Sebastian Schemm
Nora Zilibotti, Heini Wernli, and Sebastian Schemm

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Short summary
This study investigates the relationship between jet strength and storm track activity in the North Pacific and North Atlantic with a new approach that does not rely on monthly averaging. We find a consistent behaviour in the two basins, with two distinct relationships on seasonal and sub-monthly timescales emerging. This work underlines the importance of separating different timescales of variability to understand the interplay of jet characteristics and storm track activity.
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