Growth in Agricultural Water Demand Aggravates Water Supply-Demand Risk in Arid Northwest China: More a result of Anthropogenic Activities than Climate Change

You, Yang; Jiang, Pingan; Wang, Yakun; Wang, Wene; Chen, Dianyu; Hu, Xiaotao

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3089

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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3089

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02 Jul 2025

| 02 Jul 2025

Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Growth in Agricultural Water Demand Aggravates Water Supply-Demand Risk in Arid Northwest China: More a result of Anthropogenic Activities than Climate Change

Yang You, Pingan Jiang, Yakun Wang, Wene Wang, Dianyu Chen, and Xiaotao Hu

Abstract. Maintaining regional water supply-demand balance is crucial for achieving sustainable development. Although the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on water resources are widely recognized, the dynamic response mechanisms of water supply-demand risk (WSDR) under their combined forcing remain unclear. The Tailan River Basin (TRB), though situated in a typical arid climate zone, serves as China's vital fruit and high-quality grain production base due to abundant solar-thermal resources. However, systematic research on WSDR in this region is deficient, impeding guidance for healthy and stable development of large-scale farming. To address this, we developed a WSDR analytical framework based on PLUS-InVEST models, encompassing 24 climate-land change scenarios. This framework quantifies impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on TRB's water supply-demand patterns and associated risks. Results show that under the Balanced Economy-Ecology Strategy (BES), effective land consolidation could add 531.2 km² of cultivated land by 2050. However, significant cultivated land expansion drives minimum water demand to surge to 4.87×10⁸ m³, while maximum regional water supply reaches only 0.16×10⁸ m³, breaking the supply-demand balance. By 2050, the entire TRB will face WSDR crises, with at least 46 % of the region enduring endangered (Level Ⅲ) risk. The root cause is persistent anthropogenic activities-particularly land-use change-triggering continuous cultivated land expansion, increasing irrigation water demand and intensifying conflicts between water demand and supply capacity. These findings underscore the need to deeply integrate multidisciplinary approaches within WSDR frameworks, in-depth analysis of land-ecology-hydrology feedback mechanisms, to better address water security challenges under climate change. This study can provide an important scientific basis for the optimal allocation of regional soil and water resources and the sustainable development of agroecology.

Received: 29 Jun 2025 – Discussion started: 02 Jul 2025

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Yang You, Pingan Jiang, Yakun Wang, Wene Wang, Dianyu Chen, and Xiaotao Hu

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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3089', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Jul 2025 reply

This manuscript develops a WSDR analytical framework based on the PLUS-InVEST model to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on water supply and demand patterns and their associated risks in the TRB. The study is complete and has some policy implications. However, there is significant potential to improve the words and figures. Specific questions are listed below.
Q1: The scientific issues are not clearly stated in the abstract. It is recommended that the authors focus on methodological refinement rather than the lack of research in a particular region. In terms of length, the abstract needs to be further refined. In addition, logically, whether water resources in the current drylands are in balance between supply and demand is not supported by relevant results. Therefore, it is not reasonable for the abstract to state that large-scale expansion of arable land breaks the balance between water supply and demand.
Q2: The introduction section needs to move quickly to the topic of the study. In the current manuscript, the first paragraph of the introduction describes the existence of a mismatch between water supply and demand, and the second paragraph describes the potential impacts of water mismatch. However, it is difficult for the reader to get through these two lengthy paragraphs to the main challenges and research questions that the article focuses on. Therefore, it is recommended that these two paragraphs be merged to provide a brief overview of the mismatch between water supply and demand and its impacts due to irrigated agriculture and climate change.
Q3: The manuscript focuses on water use in agriculture, but the excessive use of ‘human activities’ in the introduction may mislead the reader because human activities are diverse. Therefore, I suggest replacing ‘human activities’ with ‘agricultural activities’ in the third paragraph of the introduction to ensure that the introduction is centred on the impacts of climate change and agricultural activities on water resources.
Q4: There is a logical problem in the fourth paragraph of the introduction: the PLUS model, which is used to simulate land use, and the InVEST model, which is used to calculate ecosystem services, cannot be directly used to investigate the mechanisms by which regional water supply and demand responds to the combined effects of climate change and human activities. This may be due to a lack of logic. It is suggested to change it to ‘Explore the dynamics of regional water supply and demand under climate change and irrigated agriculture’.
Q5: The introduction of arid zones in the fifth paragraph of the introduction is incongruous because it comes out of nowhere. The arid zone is an undeniable mismatch between water supply and demand. The background of these studies should have been presented clearly in the first paragraph of the introduction. In addition, the literature review section, should focus on relevant studies in arid zones and incorporate the special characteristics of arid zones.
Q6: The methodology is sound, but the technical framework diagram of the study is so complex that it is difficult to obtain valid information. For example, the data pre-processing section could be simplified as the reader does not expect to get detailed information about the data in the diagram. Also, the section on scenario setting is too complex. It is recommended to describe the scenario preferences in one sentence. Note that the connotations of the abbreviations of the scenarios were not given before this, so please add them.
Q7: Figures 3, 4, Tables 3 and 5 are redundant for the main information of the manuscript and it is suggested to move them to the supplementary material. Tables 1 and 2 could be combined. Figure 1a is missing the compass. If the figure involves abbreviations for scenarios, please add the connotations of the abbreviations in all figure titles. Please standardize the style of the north pointer.
Q8: The discussion section has problems similar to the introduction section. When I read through the first two paragraphs of the discussion, I had a hard time finding water-related discourse. Most of the discourse is about land use change, urban and cropland expansion. Therefore, it is recommended to keep the first part of the discussion to water-related research contributions and model sensitivity explanations only.

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Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3089-RC1

Yang You, Pingan Jiang, Yakun Wang, Wene Wang, Dianyu Chen, and Xiaotao Hu

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Short summary

By coupling PLUS-InVEST models under 24 climate-land scenarios, we constructed a water supply-demand risk (WSDR) assessment framework to quantify impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on water resource allocation patterns and associated risks. Results demonstrate that significant cultivated land expansion drives a surge in water demand. The root cause lies in frequent anthropogenic perturbations (land use change), which intensify conflicts between water demand-supply capacity.


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