the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Spatiotemporal Recurrence Pattern of Earth’s Polar Cap Variation During Geomagnetic Storms
Abstract. This study examined the recurrence patterns of Earth's polar cap activities in response to various geomagnetic storm intensities. Time series data of polar cap indices (PCN and PCS) for great storm, severe storm, strong storm, moderate storm, and weak storm events were analysed. Nonlinear dynamics tools, including Recurrence Plot (RP), Recurrence Rate (RR), and Length of Diagonal Line (L), were applied to the polar cap variations to identify the recurring patterns associated with the various categories of geomagnetic storms. The RP, RR, and L effectively captured the distinct recurrence features in the PCN and PCS variations across different storm categories. During great storms, severe storms, and strong geomagnetic storms, the RPs unveils a strong deterministic structure for both PCN and PCS variations, whereas moderate and weak storms showed a rare deterministic structure of RP. Similarly, RR and L values were high during great storms, severe storms, and strong storms, however these indicators significantly decline during moderate and weak storms. These findings indicates that the recurrence density and deterministic behaviour in the polar cap activities, intensify with increased solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere.
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2810', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Aug 2025
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Oludehinwa Irewola, 23 Sep 2025
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The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2810/egusphere-2025-2810-AC1-supplement.pdf
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Oludehinwa Irewola, 23 Sep 2025
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This study (entitled “Spatiotemporal Recurrence Pattern of Earth’s Polar Cap Variation During Geomagnetic Storms” by Oludehinwa et al.) examine the recurrence patterns of the polar cap indices for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (PCN and PCS, respectively) during geomagnetic storm events and their changes in response to the intensity of the geomagnetic storms. For this study, geomagnetic storms are categorized into five intensity groups (great storms, severe storms, strong storms, moderate storms, and weak storms) according to the minimum value in the SYM-H index during the interval of the corresponding geomagnetic storm events. For each of these five intensity groups, two geomagnetic storm events are selected to use Recurrence Plot (RP) and Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) techniques. Based on the results in the RP for a total of 10 geomagnetic storm events in five intensity groups, as well as the results in the Recurrence Rate (RR) and average line length of the diagonal (L) obtained from the RQA for these events, the authors suggest that the recurrence density and deterministic behavior in the polar cap activities (which could be in terms of the ionospheric electric fields in the near-pole regions generated by the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction and therefore the transpolar ionospheric Hall currents related to these fields) intensify with increasing solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere.
Although the research topic in this study and the mathematical methods used here for data analysis are somewhat interesting, it is needed to address incomplete information and difficult-to-understand data selection methods for the analysis, as well as the typos and grammatical errors. Therefore, this reviewer suggests that this manuscript requires substantial changes before it can be reconsidered for publication. The relevant comments are provided below.
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Throughout the manuscript,