Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1983
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1983
21 May 2025
 | 21 May 2025

Hybrid Lake Model (HyLake) v1.0: unifying deep learning and physical principles for simulating lake-atmosphere interactions

Yuan He and Xiaofan Yang

Abstract. Lake surface temperature (LST) serves as a crucial indicator of climate change in Earth systems. However, the challenge of improving LST and heat fluxes predictions remains due to the simplified physical principles inherent in traditional process-based models and the "black-box" structure of purely data-driven models. Accurate lake-atmosphere interaction modeling, which is essential for predicting LST and associated changes in latent heat (LE) and sensible heat (HE) fluxes, has yet to fully benefit from the integration of process-based and deep learning-based models. This study proposed Hybrid Lake Model v1.0 (HyLake v1.0), which integrates a Bayesian Optimized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory-based (BO-BLSTM-based) surrogate trained from Meiliangwan (MLW) site in Lake Taihu to approximate LST changes with surface energy balance equations. The performance of HyLake v1.0 was intercompared with FLake and hybrid lake models with different surrogates. Results demonstrated that HyLake v1.0 outperformed the others, with a R and RMSE of 0.99 and 1.08 °C in LST, a R and RMSE of 0.94 and 24.65 W/m2 in LE and a R and RMSE of 0.93 and 7.15 W/m2 in HE. To assess model generalization and transferability in ungauged lake sites, HyLake v1.0 exhibited superior performance, with a MAE of 0.85 °C, 21.56 W/m2 and 6.63 W/m2 in LST, LE and HE respectively, across all lake sites compared to FLake. Under ERA5 reanalysis datasets, HyLake v1.0 performed better for 14 of 15 variables (including LST, LE, and HE across 5 lake sites), with a MAE of 0.90 °C, 35.02 W/m2 and 7.97 W/m2 in LST, LE and HE respectively, indicating strong generalization and transferability. The results supported HyLake v1.0 exhibited an excellent capacity in estimating lake-atmosphere interactions for untrained lake sites, indicating a reasonable performance for extending the application in other ungauged lakes. Furthermore, the proposed model shows promising potential for predicting lake-atmosphere interactions, laying the solid basis for future improvements.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

01 Dec 2025
Hybrid Lake Model (HyLake) v1.0: unifying deep learning and physical principles for simulating lake-atmosphere interactions
Yuan He and Xiaofan Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9257–9277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9257-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9257-2025, 2025
Short summary
Yuan He and Xiaofan Yang

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1983', Anonymous Referee #1, 31 May 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Yuan He, 05 Aug 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1983', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Jun 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Yuan He, 05 Aug 2025
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1983', Anonymous Referee #3, 21 Jun 2025
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Yuan He, 05 Aug 2025
  • RC4: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1983', Anonymous Referee #4, 26 Jun 2025
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC4', Yuan He, 05 Aug 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1983', Anonymous Referee #1, 31 May 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Yuan He, 05 Aug 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1983', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Jun 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Yuan He, 05 Aug 2025
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1983', Anonymous Referee #3, 21 Jun 2025
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC3', Yuan He, 05 Aug 2025
  • RC4: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1983', Anonymous Referee #4, 26 Jun 2025
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC4', Yuan He, 05 Aug 2025

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
AR by Yuan He on behalf of the Authors (05 Aug 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (05 Sep 2025) by Yongze Song
AR by Yuan He on behalf of the Authors (11 Sep 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (15 Sep 2025) by Yongze Song
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (15 Sep 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (18 Sep 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (10 Oct 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (15 Oct 2025) by Yongze Song
AR by Yuan He on behalf of the Authors (18 Oct 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (01 Nov 2025) by Yongze Song
AR by Yuan He on behalf of the Authors (01 Nov 2025)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

01 Dec 2025
Hybrid Lake Model (HyLake) v1.0: unifying deep learning and physical principles for simulating lake-atmosphere interactions
Yuan He and Xiaofan Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9257–9277, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9257-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9257-2025, 2025
Short summary
Yuan He and Xiaofan Yang
Yuan He and Xiaofan Yang

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Short summary
This study introduces HyLake, a hybrid lake model that embeds a deep-learning surrogate for the water temperature module within a process-based backbone. HyLake simulates lake surface temperature and the latent and sensible heat fluxes in Lake Taihu more accurately than traditional process-based models and other hybrid experiments across different forcing datasets. The proposed coupling strategy provides a reliable tool for quantifying the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems.
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