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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-67
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-67
06 Feb 2024
 | 06 Feb 2024

Finite domains cause bias in measured and modeled distributions of cloud sizes

Thomas D. DeWitt and Timothy J. Garrett

Abstract. A significant uncertainty in assessments of the role of clouds in climate is characterization of the full distribution of their sizes. Order-of-magnitude disagreements exist among observations of such key distribution parameters as the power law exponent and the range over which a power law applies. A study by Savre and Craig (2023) proposed this discrepancy owes in large part to inaccurate fitting methods. Rather than linear regression to a logarithmically-transformed histogram of cloud sizes, an alternative method termed Maximum Likelihood Estimation was recommended. Here, we counter that Maximum Likelihood Estimation is ill-suited to measurements of physical objects like clouds, and that the accuracy of linear regression can be improved with the simple remedy that bins containing less than ~24 counts be omitted from the regression. Further, we argue that the unavoidably finite nature of measurement domains is a much more significant source of error than has previously been appreciated. Finite domain effects are sufficient to account for previously observed discrepancies among reported cloud size distributions. We provide a simple procedure to identify and correct finite domain effects that could be applied to any measurement of a geometric size distribution of objects, whether physical, ecological, social or mathematical.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

26 Jul 2024
Finite domains cause bias in measured and modeled distributions of cloud sizes
Thomas D. DeWitt and Timothy J. Garrett
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8457–8472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8457-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8457-2024, 2024
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

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There is considerable disagreement on mathematical parameters that describe the numbers of...
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