Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3017
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3017
28 Nov 2024
 | 28 Nov 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Econometric Modelling for Estimating Direct Flood Damage to Firms: A Local-Scale Approach Using Post-Event Records in Italy

Marta Ballocci, Daniela Molinari, Giovanni Marin, Marta Galliani, Alessio Domeneghetti, Giovanni Menduni, Simone Sterlacchini, and Francesco Ballio

Abstract. Managing flood risk is crucial for achieving global sustainability. Particularly, flood damage to firms' assets imposes significant financial stress, necessitating efforts to minimize future consequences. However, current tools and knowledge for estimating flood damage to firms are inadequate, primarily due to a lack of high-quality damage data and the diversity of enterprise characteristics, complicating generalization. This study aims to improve understanding micro- local scale flood damage to firms in Italy through the analysis of empirical data, focusing specifically on direct damage. The dataset comprises 812 observed damage records collected after five flood events. Damage is categorized into building structure, stock, and equipment. The analysis reveals relationships between damage, economic sector, and water depth. Results indicate that damage increases at a rate less than proportional to the firm surface area and with water depth significantly explaining only stock damage. The quantification of the damage across different sectors highlights, healthcare, commercial, and manufacturing categories as the most vulnerable for building structure, stock, and equipment damage, respectively. The derived damage model offers better predictive accuracy than foreign models in the Italian context. These findings aid in developing effective, tailored risk mitigation strategies and provide valuable insights for future research and policy aimed at reducing flood impacts on firm in Italy.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Marta Ballocci, Daniela Molinari, Giovanni Marin, Marta Galliani, Alessio Domeneghetti, Giovanni Menduni, Simone Sterlacchini, and Francesco Ballio

Status: open (until 10 Jan 2025)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
Marta Ballocci, Daniela Molinari, Giovanni Marin, Marta Galliani, Alessio Domeneghetti, Giovanni Menduni, Simone Sterlacchini, and Francesco Ballio
Marta Ballocci, Daniela Molinari, Giovanni Marin, Marta Galliani, Alessio Domeneghetti, Giovanni Menduni, Simone Sterlacchini, and Francesco Ballio

Viewed

Total article views: 102 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
74 25 3 102 1 2
  • HTML: 74
  • PDF: 25
  • XML: 3
  • Total: 102
  • BibTeX: 1
  • EndNote: 2
Views and downloads (calculated since 28 Nov 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 28 Nov 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 86 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 86 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 13 Dec 2024
Download
Short summary
This study estimates flood direct damage to businesses in Italy using 812 damage records from five riverine flood case studies. A multiple regression model predicts economic damage based on business size, water depth, and economic sectors. The results show that damage increases non-proportionally with firm size, while water depth mainly affects stock damage. Healthcare, commercial, and manufacturing sectors are most vulnerable to building, stock, and equipment damage, respectively.