Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2627
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2627
05 Sep 2024
 | 05 Sep 2024

Detectability of forced trends in stratospheric ozone

Louis Rivoire, Marianna Linz, Jessica L. Neu, Pu Lin, and Michelle L. Santee

Abstract. The continued monitoring of the ozone layer and its long-term evolution leans on comparative studies of merged satellite records. Such records present unique challenges due to differences in sampling, coverage, and retrieval algorithms between observing platforms, leading to discrepancies in trend calculations. Here we examine the effects of optimal estimation retrieval algorithms on vertically resolved ozone trends, using one merged record as an example. We find errors as large as 1 % per decade and displacements in trend profile features of as much as 6 km altitude due to the vertical redistribution of information by averaging kernels. Furthermore, we show that averaging kernels tend to increase the length of record needed to determine whether vertically resolved trend estimates are distinguishable from natural variability with good statistical confidence. We conclude that trend uncertainties may be underestimated, in part because averaging kernels misrepresent decadal to multi-decadal internal variability, and in part because the removal of known modes of variability from the observed record can yield residual errors. The study provides a framework to reconcile differences between observing platforms, and highlights the need for caution when using merged satellite records to quantify trends and their uncertainties.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

20 Feb 2025
Satellite nadir-viewing geometry affects the magnitude and detectability of long-term trends in stratospheric ozone
Louis Rivoire, Marianna Linz, Jessica L. Neu, Pu Lin, and Michelle L. Santee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2269–2289, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2269-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2269-2025, 2025
Short summary
Louis Rivoire, Marianna Linz, Jessica L. Neu, Pu Lin, and Michelle L. Santee

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2627', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Sep 2024
  • RC2: 'some major revisions needed', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Sep 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2627', Anonymous Referee #3, 24 Sep 2024

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2627', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Sep 2024
  • RC2: 'some major revisions needed', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Sep 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2627', Anonymous Referee #3, 24 Sep 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Louis Rivoire on behalf of the Authors (25 Nov 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (26 Nov 2024) by Farahnaz Khosrawi
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (20 Dec 2024)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (20 Dec 2024) by Farahnaz Khosrawi
AR by Louis Rivoire on behalf of the Authors (20 Dec 2024)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

20 Feb 2025
Satellite nadir-viewing geometry affects the magnitude and detectability of long-term trends in stratospheric ozone
Louis Rivoire, Marianna Linz, Jessica L. Neu, Pu Lin, and Michelle L. Santee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2269–2289, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2269-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2269-2025, 2025
Short summary
Louis Rivoire, Marianna Linz, Jessica L. Neu, Pu Lin, and Michelle L. Santee
Louis Rivoire, Marianna Linz, Jessica L. Neu, Pu Lin, and Michelle L. Santee

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
The recovery of the ozone hole since the 1987 Montreal Protocol has been observed in some regions, but has yet to be seen globally. We ask: how long will it take to witness a global recovery? Using a technique akin to flying a virtual satellite in a climate model, we find that the degree of confidence we place in the answer to this question is dramatically affected by errors in satellite observations.
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