Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2627
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2627
05 Sep 2024
 | 05 Sep 2024

Detectability of forced trends in stratospheric ozone

Louis Rivoire, Marianna Linz, Jessica L. Neu, Pu Lin, and Michelle L. Santee

Abstract. The continued monitoring of the ozone layer and its long-term evolution leans on comparative studies of merged satellite records. Such records present unique challenges due to differences in sampling, coverage, and retrieval algorithms between observing platforms, leading to discrepancies in trend calculations. Here we examine the effects of optimal estimation retrieval algorithms on vertically resolved ozone trends, using one merged record as an example. We find errors as large as 1 % per decade and displacements in trend profile features of as much as 6 km altitude due to the vertical redistribution of information by averaging kernels. Furthermore, we show that averaging kernels tend to increase the length of record needed to determine whether vertically resolved trend estimates are distinguishable from natural variability with good statistical confidence. We conclude that trend uncertainties may be underestimated, in part because averaging kernels misrepresent decadal to multi-decadal internal variability, and in part because the removal of known modes of variability from the observed record can yield residual errors. The study provides a framework to reconcile differences between observing platforms, and highlights the need for caution when using merged satellite records to quantify trends and their uncertainties.

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Louis Rivoire, Marianna Linz, Jessica L. Neu, Pu Lin, and Michelle L. Santee

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2627', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Sep 2024
  • RC2: 'some major revisions needed', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Sep 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2627', Anonymous Referee #3, 24 Sep 2024
Louis Rivoire, Marianna Linz, Jessica L. Neu, Pu Lin, and Michelle L. Santee
Louis Rivoire, Marianna Linz, Jessica L. Neu, Pu Lin, and Michelle L. Santee

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Short summary
The recovery of the ozone hole since the 1987 Montreal Protocol has been observed in some regions, but has yet to be seen globally. We ask: how long will it take to witness a global recovery? Using a technique akin to flying a virtual satellite in a climate model, we find that the degree of confidence we place in the answer to this question is dramatically affected by errors in satellite observations.