<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2024-2627</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Detectability of forced trends in stratospheric ozone</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rivoire</surname>
<given-names>Louis</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3030-7922</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Linz</surname>
<given-names>Marianna</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3241-5062</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Neu</surname>
<given-names>Jessica L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lin</surname>
<given-names>Pu</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2577-6094</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Santee</surname>
<given-names>Michelle L.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9466-7257</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>05</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2024</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>32</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2024 Louis Rivoire et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2024</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2627/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2627/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2627/egusphere-2024-2627.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2627/egusphere-2024-2627.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The continued monitoring of the ozone layer and its long-term evolution leans on comparative studies of merged satellite records. Such records present unique challenges due to differences in sampling, coverage, and retrieval algorithms between observing platforms, leading to discrepancies in trend calculations. Here we examine the effects of optimal estimation retrieval algorithms on vertically resolved ozone trends, using one merged record as an example. We find errors as large as 1 % per decade and displacements in trend profile features of as much as 6 km altitude due to the vertical redistribution of information by averaging kernels. Furthermore, we show that averaging kernels tend to increase the length of record needed to determine whether vertically resolved trend estimates are distinguishable from natural variability with good statistical confidence. We conclude that trend uncertainties may be underestimated, in part because averaging kernels misrepresent decadal to multi-decadal internal variability, and in part because the removal of known modes of variability from the observed record can yield residual errors. The study provides a framework to reconcile differences between observing platforms, and highlights the need for caution when using merged satellite records to quantify trends and their uncertainties.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="32"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Aeronautics and Space Administration</funding-source>
<award-id>80NM0018D0004</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>National Aeronautics and Space Administration</funding-source>
<award-id>80NSSC21K0943</award-id>
<award-id>80NSSC23K1005</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</funding-source>
<award-id>NA18OAR4320123</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>