Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2436
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2436
14 Aug 2024
 | 14 Aug 2024

Causal Analysis of Aerosol Impacts on Isolated Deep Convection: Findings from TRACER

Dié Wang, Roni Kobrosly, Tao Zhang, Tamanna Subba, Susan van den Heever, Siddhant Gupta, and Michael Jensen

Abstract. This study employs a novel application of causal machine learning, specifically g-computation, to quantify aerosol effects on deep convective clouds (DCCs). Focusing on isolated DCCs in the Houston-Galveston region, we leverage comprehensive ground-based observations from the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) to estimate aerosol influences on convective core depth, intensity, and area. Our results reveal that greater aerosol number concentrations generally have a limited impact on convective core echo top height (ETH), with an increase of about 1 km (13 % of average ETH). This effect is observed under specific conditions, particularly when ultrafine particles are activated in updraft regions. Additionally, greater aerosol levels correspond to increased convective core intensity and area, though these changes remain within radar measurement uncertainties. In DCCs associated with sea breezes, aerosol effects are more pronounced, resulting in a 1.4 km deepening of ETH. However, this heightened effect could be attributed to the exclusion of key confounders such as boundary layer updrafts in the causal model. This study pioneers the application of causal machine learning to explore aerosol-convection interactions, shedding light on unraveling complex interplay between aerosols and meteorological variables.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

26 Aug 2025
Aerosol impacts on isolated deep convection: findings from TRACER
Dié Wang, Roni Kobrosly, Tao Zhang, Tamanna Subba, Susan van den Heever, Siddhant Gupta, and Michael Jensen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9295–9314, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9295-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9295-2025, 2025
Short summary
Dié Wang, Roni Kobrosly, Tao Zhang, Tamanna Subba, Susan van den Heever, Siddhant Gupta, and Michael Jensen

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2436', Toshi Matsui, 30 Aug 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2436', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Sep 2024

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2436', Toshi Matsui, 30 Aug 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2436', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Sep 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Dié Wang on behalf of the Authors (15 Dec 2024)  Author's response   Manuscript 
EF by Anna Glados (18 Dec 2024)  Author's tracked changes 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (19 Dec 2024) by Shaocheng Xie
RR by Toshi Matsui (07 Jan 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (24 Jan 2025)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (25 Jan 2025) by Shaocheng Xie
AR by Dié Wang on behalf of the Authors (25 Feb 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (03 Mar 2025) by Shaocheng Xie
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (24 Mar 2025)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (31 Mar 2025) by Shaocheng Xie
AR by Dié Wang on behalf of the Authors (02 May 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (09 May 2025) by Shaocheng Xie
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (17 May 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (27 May 2025) by Shaocheng Xie
AR by Dié Wang on behalf of the Authors (30 May 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (04 Jun 2025) by Shaocheng Xie
AR by Dié Wang on behalf of the Authors (04 Jun 2025)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

26 Aug 2025
Aerosol impacts on isolated deep convection: findings from TRACER
Dié Wang, Roni Kobrosly, Tao Zhang, Tamanna Subba, Susan van den Heever, Siddhant Gupta, and Michael Jensen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 9295–9314, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9295-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-9295-2025, 2025
Short summary
Dié Wang, Roni Kobrosly, Tao Zhang, Tamanna Subba, Susan van den Heever, Siddhant Gupta, and Michael Jensen
Dié Wang, Roni Kobrosly, Tao Zhang, Tamanna Subba, Susan van den Heever, Siddhant Gupta, and Michael Jensen

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Short summary
We use a new method to understand how tiny particles in the air, called aerosols, affect rain clouds in the Houston-Galveston area. Aerosols generally do not make these clouds grow much taller, with an average height increase of about 1 km under certain conditions. However, their effects on rainfall strength and cloud expansion are less certain. Clouds influenced by sea breezes show a stronger aerosol impact, possibly due to unaccounted factors like vertical winds in near-surface layers.
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