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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2066
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2066
24 Jul 2024
 | 24 Jul 2024

Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood

Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich

Abstract. Over the last 40 years (1980–2020), 159 people have died in inland floods in Germany. The flood of 2021 caused 190 flood fatalities in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley. We investigate what made this event so 'deadly' in order to help improve flood risk management and prevent future fatalities. A comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing the occurrence of fatalities is carried out on the basis of the death investigation files of the public prosecutor's office. This unprecedented flash flood was characterised by high water levels and high flow velocities. The extent of inundation in 2021 far exceeded the official hazard map for the extreme flood scenario. Additionally, early warning and evacuation were inadequate so that many people were surprised by the flash flood. 75 % of the fatalities occurred outside of the mapped hazard zones. Particularly dangerous places were campsites, cellars and basement flats, but many people died on the ground floor (37 %) or outside on the street (18 %). The elderly above 60 years of age (78 %) and those with mobility or cognitive impairments (16 %) were particularly vulnerable. No gender-specific differences in vulnerability were observed. Public understanding of the particular danger posed by flash floods must be improved, as must the development and presentation of worst-case scenarios in hazard maps. Additionally, impact forecasting can significantly improve emergency management of such unprecedented floods. Specific recommendations are that in the event of such extreme flash floods, the warning messages must clearly communicate that saving human lives must be the priority, i.e., those at risk should move to safe places, e.g., to the upper floors. Evacuations must be initiated in good time, especially where flooding of the ground floor with high water levels is to be expected, paying particular attention to the safety of the elderly and people with limited mobility.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

10 Feb 2025
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Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood
Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 581–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, 2025
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The paper explains the factors which made the Ahr flood event of 2021 the deadliest one in...
Short summary
The 2021 flood killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the...
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