Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1013
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1013
06 May 2024
 | 06 May 2024

21st century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations

Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, David R. Rounce, Rodrigo Aguayo, Nicolas Champollion, Loris Compagno, Romain Hugonnet, Ben Marzeion, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, and Daniel Farinotti

Abstract. Projecting the global evolution of glaciers is crucial to quantify future sea-level rise and changes in glacier-fed rivers. Recent intercomparison efforts have shown that a large part of the uncertainties in the projected glacier evolution is driven by the glacier model itself and by the data used for initial conditions and calibration. Here, we quantify the effect that mass balance observations, one of the most crucial data sources used in glacier modelling, have on glacier projections. For this, we model the 21st century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 climate scenarios with the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM) calibrated to match glacier-specific mass balance observations, as opposed to relying on regional mass balance observations. We find that the differences in modelled 21st century glacier changes can be large at the scale of individual glaciers (up to several tens of percent), but tend to average out at regional to global scales (a few percent at most). Our study thus indicates that the added value of relying on glacier-specific observations is at the subregional and local scale, which will increasingly allow projecting the glacier-specific evolution and local impacts for every individual glacier on Earth. To increase the ensemble of models that project global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios, simulations are also performed with the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM). We project the 2015–2100 global glacier loss to vary between 25±15 % (GloGEM) and 29±14 % (OGGM) under SSP1-2.6 to 46±26 % and 54±29 % under SSP5-8.5 (ensemble median, with 95 % confidence interval). Despite some differences at the regional scale and a slightly more pronounced sensitivity to changing climatic conditions, our results agree well with the recent projections by Rounce et al. (2023), thereby projecting, for any emission scenario, a higher 21st century mass loss than the current community estimate from the second phase of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project (GlacierMIP2).

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Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, David R. Rounce, Rodrigo Aguayo, Nicolas Champollion, Loris Compagno, Romain Hugonnet, Ben Marzeion, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, and Daniel Farinotti

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, David R. Rounce, Rodrigo Aguayo, Nicolas Champollion, Loris Compagno, Romain Hugonnet, Ben Marzeion, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, and Daniel Farinotti
Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, Lilian Schuster, Fabien Maussion, David R. Rounce, Rodrigo Aguayo, Nicolas Champollion, Loris Compagno, Romain Hugonnet, Ben Marzeion, Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi, and Daniel Farinotti

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This study brings together an impressive amount of data to come up with an updated estimate of global glacier loss until the year 2100. This is an important result in a climate change context, and one of a global dimension.
Short summary
Glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise and act as key water resources. Here, we model the global evolution of glaciers under the latest generation of climate scenarios. We show that the type of observations used for model calibration can strongly affect the projections at the local scale. Our newly projected 21st century global mass loss is higher than the current community estimate as reported in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.