the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
21st century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations
Abstract. Projecting the global evolution of glaciers is crucial to quantify future sea-level rise and changes in glacier-fed rivers. Recent intercomparison efforts have shown that a large part of the uncertainties in the projected glacier evolution is driven by the glacier model itself and by the data used for initial conditions and calibration. Here, we quantify the effect that mass balance observations, one of the most crucial data sources used in glacier modelling, have on glacier projections. For this, we model the 21st century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 climate scenarios with the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM) calibrated to match glacier-specific mass balance observations, as opposed to relying on regional mass balance observations. We find that the differences in modelled 21st century glacier changes can be large at the scale of individual glaciers (up to several tens of percent), but tend to average out at regional to global scales (a few percent at most). Our study thus indicates that the added value of relying on glacier-specific observations is at the subregional and local scale, which will increasingly allow projecting the glacier-specific evolution and local impacts for every individual glacier on Earth. To increase the ensemble of models that project global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios, simulations are also performed with the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM). We project the 2015–2100 global glacier loss to vary between 25±15 % (GloGEM) and 29±14 % (OGGM) under SSP1-2.6 to 46±26 % and 54±29 % under SSP5-8.5 (ensemble median, with 95 % confidence interval). Despite some differences at the regional scale and a slightly more pronounced sensitivity to changing climatic conditions, our results agree well with the recent projections by Rounce et al. (2023), thereby projecting, for any emission scenario, a higher 21st century mass loss than the current community estimate from the second phase of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project (GlacierMIP2).
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Notice on discussion status
The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
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Preprint
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Supplement
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
- Preprint
(2618 KB) - Metadata XML
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Supplement
(1090 KB) - BibTeX
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- Final revised paper
Journal article(s) based on this preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1013', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Jun 2024
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Harry Zekollari, 27 Aug 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1013', Jason Amundson, 11 Jul 2024
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-1013/egusphere-2024-1013-RC2-supplement.pdf
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Harry Zekollari, 27 Aug 2024
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
-
RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1013', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Jun 2024
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Harry Zekollari, 27 Aug 2024
-
RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1013', Jason Amundson, 11 Jul 2024
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-1013/egusphere-2024-1013-RC2-supplement.pdf
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Harry Zekollari, 27 Aug 2024
Peer review completion
Journal article(s) based on this preprint
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Matthias Huss
Lilian Schuster
Fabien Maussion
David R. Rounce
Rodrigo Aguayo
Nicolas Champollion
Loris Compagno
Romain Hugonnet
Ben Marzeion
Seyedhamidreza Mojtabavi
Daniel Farinotti
The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
- Preprint
(2618 KB) - Metadata XML
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Supplement
(1090 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
- Final revised paper