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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873
15 Jan 2024
 | 15 Jan 2024

Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in Northern Europe

Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Mueller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle

Abstract. Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in Northern Europe using ecosystem process models. Six ecosystem models (JSBACH-HIMMELI, LPX-Bern, LPJ-GUESS, JULES, CLM4.5 and CLM5) were compared to multi-model mean of ecosystem models and atmospheric inversions from the Global Carbon Project and up-scaled eddy covariance flux results for their temperature and precipitation responses and seasonal cycles of the regional fluxes. Two models with contrasting response patterns, LPX-Bern and JSBACH-HIMMELI, were used as priors in atmospheric inversions with Carbon Tracker Europe – CH4 in order to find out how the inversion attempts to change the prior fluxes in the posterior and how this alters the interpretation of the flux responses to temperature and precipitation. The inversion attempted to move emissions of both models in posterior towards co-limitation by temperature and precipitation. In general high temperature and/or high precipitation periods often resulted in high posterior emissions. This was not the case for the warm and dry period of summer 2018. The process models showed strong temperature as well as strong precipitation responses for the region (51–91 % of the variance explained by both), and the month of maximum emissions varied from May to September. However, multi-model means, inversions and up-scaled eddy covariance flux observations agreed on the month of maximum emissions, and had rather balanced temperature and precipitation responses. The set-up of different emission components (peatland emissions, mineral land fluxes) had a significant role in building up the response patterns. Considering the significant differences among the models, it is essential to pay more attention to the magnitude, composition, annual cycle and climate driver responses of wetland emissions in different regions.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

16 Jan 2025
Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Müller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 22, 323–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025, 2025
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich...
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