Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-869
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-869
12 May 2023
 | 12 May 2023

Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling

Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy

Abstract. In this study we present a model for the global Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS). PHELS estimates the daily hazard of hydrologically-triggered landslides at a coarse spatial resolution of 36 km, by combining landslide susceptibility (LSS) and (percentiles of) hydrological variable(s). The latter include daily rainfall, a 7-day antecedent rainfall index (ARI7) or root-zone soil moisture content (rzmc) as hydrological predictor variables, or the combination of rainfall and rzmc. The hazard estimates with any of these predictor variables have areas under the Receiver Operation Characteristic curve (AUC) above 0.68. The best performance was found with combined rainfall and rzmc predictors (AUC = 0.79), which resulted in the least missed alarms (especially during spring) and false alarms. Furthermore, PHELS provides hazard uncertainty estimates by generating ensemble simulations based on repeated sampling of LSS and the hydrological predictor variables. The estimated hazard uncertainty follows the behaviour of the input variable uncertainties, is about 13.6 % of the estimated hazard value on average across the globe and in time, and smallest for very low and very high hazard values.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Share

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

14 Dec 2023
Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): global ensemble landslide hazard modelling
Anne Felsberg, Zdenko Heyvaert, Jean Poesen, Thomas Stanley, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3805–3821, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3805-2023, 2023
Short summary
Download

The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
The Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS) model combines ensembles of...
Share