Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-804
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-804
02 May 2023
 | 02 May 2023
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa

Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò

Abstract. Every year Africa is hit by extreme floods which, combined with high levels of vulnerability and increasing population exposure, often result in humanitarian crises and population displacement. Impact-based forecasting and early warning for natural hazards is recognized as a step forward in disaster risk reduction, thanks to its focus on people, livelihoods and assets at risk. Yet, the majority of the African population is not covered by any sort of early warning system. This article describes the setup of Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based riverine flood forecasting and early warning system for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), with a forecast range of 5 days. The system is based on a modeling cascade relying on distributed hydrological simulations forced by ensemble weather forecasts, link to inundation maps for specific return period, and application of a risk assessment framework to estimate population and assets exposed to upcoming floods. The system is operational and supports the African Union Commission and the IGAD Disaster Operation Center in the daily monitoring and early warning from hydro-meteorological disasters in Eastern Africa. Results show a first evaluation of the hydrological reanalysis at 78 river gauging stations and a semi-quantitative assessment of the impact forecasts for the catastrophic floods in Sudan and in the Nile River Basin in Summer 2020.

Lorenzo Alfieri et al.

Status: open (until 13 Jun 2023)

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Lorenzo Alfieri et al.

Lorenzo Alfieri et al.

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Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River Basin in Summer 2020.