01 Mar 2023
 | 01 Mar 2023
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Indicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailand

Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri

Abstract. Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Developing a reliable Drought Monitoring and Early Warning System (DMEWS) is essential to strengthen a country’s resilience to droughts. However, for a DMEWS to be valuable, the drought indicators it provides stakeholders must have relevance to tangible impacts on the ground. Here, we analyse drought indicator-to-impact relationships in Thailand, using a combination of correlation analysis and machine learning techniques (random forest). In the correlation analysis, we study the link between meteorological drought indicators and high-resolution remote sensing vegetation indices used as proxies for crop-yield and forest-growth impacts. Our analysis shows that this link varies depending on land use, season, and region. The random forest models built to estimate regional crop productivity allow a more in-depth analysis of the crop-/region-specific importance of different drought indicators. The results highlight seasonal patterns of drought vulnerability for individual crops, usually linked to their growing season, although the effects are somewhat attenuated in irrigated regions. Integration of the approaches provides new detailed knowledge of crop-/region-specific indicator-to-impact links, which can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions in an improved DMEWS in Thailand, and could be applied in other parts of Southeast Asia and beyond.

Maliko Tanguy et al.

Status: open (until 12 Apr 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-308', Samuel Jonson Sutanto, 16 Mar 2023 reply

Maliko Tanguy et al.


Total article views: 270 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
200 61 9 270 16 3 6
  • HTML: 200
  • PDF: 61
  • XML: 9
  • Total: 270
  • Supplement: 16
  • BibTeX: 3
  • EndNote: 6
Views and downloads (calculated since 01 Mar 2023)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 01 Mar 2023)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 262 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 262 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
Latest update: 30 Mar 2023
Short summary
Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country’s preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impacts links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.