Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2881
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2881
18 Dec 2023
 | 18 Dec 2023

Brief Communication: Antarctic sea ice loss brings observed trends into agreement with climate models

Caroline R. Holmes, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Julienne Stroeve, and Jeremy Wilkinson

Abstract. Most climate models do not reproduce the 1979–2014 increase in Antarctic sea ice cover. This was a contributing factor in successive Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports allocating low confidence to model projections of sea ice over the 21st century. We show that recent rapid declines bring observed sea ice area trends into line with the models. This implies that projections of substantial future Antarctic sea ice loss may be more reliable than previously thought, with substantial implications for the evolution of the Southern Hemisphere climate.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

05 Dec 2024
Brief communication: New perspectives on the skill of modelled sea ice trends in light of recent Antarctic sea ice loss
Caroline R. Holmes, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Julienne Stroeve, and Jeremy Wilkinson
The Cryosphere, 18, 5641–5652, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5641-2024, 2024
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Until recently, observed Antarctic sea ice was increasing, while in contrast numerical climate...
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