Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2422
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2422
07 Nov 2023
 | 07 Nov 2023

Focal-TSMP: Deep learning for vegetation health prediction and agricultural drought assessment from a regional climate simulation

Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin and Juergen Gall

Abstract. In this study, we investigate applying deep learning (DL) models on a regional climate simulation produced by the Terrestrial Systems Modelling Platform (TSMP Ground to Atmosphere G2A) for vegetation health modeling and agricultural drought assessment. The TSMP simulation is performed in a free mode and the DL model is used in an intermediate step to synthesize Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Brightness Temperature (BT) images from the TSMP simulation over Europe. These predicted images are then used to derive different vegetation and drought indices like NDVI anomaly, BT anomaly, Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Thermal Condition Index (TCI), and Vegetation Health Index (VHI). To ensure reliability and to assess the model applicability with different seasonality and spatial variability, we provide an analysis of model biases and uncertainties across different regions over the Pan-Europe domain. We further provide an analysis about the contribution of the input variables from the TSMP model components to ensure a better understanding of the model prediction. A comprehensive evaluation on the long-term TSMP using reference remote sensing data showed sufficiently good agreements between the model predictions and observations. While model performance varies on the test set between different climate regions, it achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.027 and 1.90 K° with coefficient of determination (R2) scores of 0.88 and 0.92 for NDVI and BT, respectively, at 0.11° resolution for sub-seasonal predictions. Our study could be used as a complimentary evaluation framework for climate change simulations with TSMP. Moreover, the developed DL model could be integrated with data assimilation and used for down-stream tasks, i.e., modelling the impact of extreme events on vegetation responses with different climate change scenarios. In summary, we demonstrate the feasibility of using DL on a TSMP simulation to synthesize NDVI and BT, which can be used for agricultural drought forecasting. Our implementation is publicly available at the project page (https://hakamshams.github.io/Focal-TSMP).

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

16 Apr 2024
Focal-TSMP: deep learning for vegetation health prediction and agricultural drought assessment from a regional climate simulation
Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin and Juergen Gall
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2987–3023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2987-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2987-2024, 2024
Short summary
Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin and Juergen Gall

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2422', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Dec 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin, 02 Jan 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2422', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Dec 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin, 02 Jan 2024
  • CEC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2422', Juan Antonio Añel, 20 Dec 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on CEC1', Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin, 21 Dec 2023
      • CEC2: 'Reply on AC1', Juan Antonio Añel, 22 Dec 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2422', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Dec 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin, 02 Jan 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2422', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Dec 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin, 02 Jan 2024
  • CEC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2422', Juan Antonio Añel, 20 Dec 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on CEC1', Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin, 21 Dec 2023
      • CEC2: 'Reply on AC1', Juan Antonio Añel, 22 Dec 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin on behalf of the Authors (06 Feb 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (07 Feb 2024) by Di Tian
AR by Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin on behalf of the Authors (08 Feb 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (08 Feb 2024) by Di Tian
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (08 Feb 2024)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (22 Feb 2024)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (22 Feb 2024) by Di Tian
AR by Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin on behalf of the Authors (26 Feb 2024)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Post-review adjustments

AA: Author's adjustment | EA: Editor approval
AA by Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin on behalf of the Authors (10 Apr 2024)   Author's adjustment   Manuscript
EA: Adjustments approved (12 Apr 2024) by Di Tian

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

16 Apr 2024
Focal-TSMP: deep learning for vegetation health prediction and agricultural drought assessment from a regional climate simulation
Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin and Juergen Gall
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2987–3023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2987-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2987-2024, 2024
Short summary
Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin and Juergen Gall

Data sets

Focal-TSMP: Deep learning for vegetation health prediction and agricultural drought assessment from a regional climate simulation Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin and Juergen Gall https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10008814

Model code and software

Focal-TSMP: Deep learning for vegetation health prediction and agricultural drought assessment from a regional climate simulation Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin and Juergen Gall https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10015048

Focal-TSMP: Deep learning for vegetation health prediction and agricultural drought assessment from a regional climate simulation Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin https://github.com/HakamShams/Focal_TSMP

Video abstract

Focal TSMP Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin https://youtu.be/7m-85sDGwe8

Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin and Juergen Gall

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Short summary
Scientists usually rely on climate projections to analyze agricultural drought events in the future. In this study, we use deep learning and a climate simulation to forecast the vegetation health as it would be observed from satellites in the future. We found that the developed model can help to identify regions with a high risk of agricultural droughts. The main application of this study is to predict the future vegetation response to climate change based on climate scenarios.