Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-205
14 Feb 2023
 | 14 Feb 2023

Projections and uncertainties of future winter windstorm damage in Europe

Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch

Abstract. Winter windstorms are among the most significant natural hazards in Europe linked to fatalities and substantial economic damages. However, projections of windstorm impact in Europe under climate change are highly uncertain. This study combines climate projections from 30 general circulation models participating in CMIP6 with the climate-risk assessment model CLIMADA to obtain projections of future change in windstorm-induced damages over Europe. We conduct an uncertainty-sensitivity analysis, and find large uncertainties in the projected changes in the damages, with climate model uncertainty being the dominant factor of uncertainty in the projections. We investigate spatial patterns of the future changes in windstorm damages and find an increase in the damages in northwestern and northern-central Europe, and a decrease over the rest of Europe, in agreement with an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track into Europe. We combine all 30 available climate models in an ensemble of opportunity approach and find evidence for an intensification of future windstorm damages, with damages with return periods of 100 years under current climate conditions becoming damages with return periods of 28 years under future SSP585 climate scenarios. Our findings demonstrate the importance of climate model uncertainty for the CMIP6 projections of windstorms in Europe, and emphasize the increasing need for risk mitigation due to extreme weather in the future.

Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-205', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Apr 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Luca Severino, 11 Jul 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-205', Anonymous Referee #2, 30 May 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Luca Severino, 11 Jul 2023

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-205', Anonymous Referee #1, 25 Apr 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Luca Severino, 11 Jul 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-205', Anonymous Referee #2, 30 May 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Luca Severino, 11 Jul 2023
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch

Model code and software

CLIMADA project gabrielaznar; Samuel Eberenz; Thomas Vogt; Emanuel Schmid; Carmen B. Steinmann; Yue Yu; Thomas Röösli; Samuel Lüthi; Inga J. Sauer; Evelyn Mühlhofer; Jan Hartman; Chahan M. Kropf; Benoit P. Guillod; Zélie Stalhandske; Alessio Ciullo; David N. Bresch; Chris Fairless; Pui Man (Mannie) Kam; wjan262; Lukas Riedel; Simona Meiler; Rachel_B; veronicabozzini; DarioStocker https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6807463

Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch

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Latest update: 15 Apr 2024
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The future of loss and damage from severe European winterstorms remains an open topic for research, societies and affected communities. This manuscript fills a significant gap in our current understanding of future lossess based on the lastes CMIP6 model simulations. The findings demonstrate the importance of climate model uncertainty for the CMIP6 projections of windstorms in Europe, and emphasize the increasing need for risk mitigation due to extreme weather in the future.
Short summary
This study uses climate projections from 30 climate models and a climate-risk assessment model to obtain projections of future windstorm damage over Europe. We find the damage projections to be highly uncertain and dominated by climate model uncertainty. We find potential increases in windstorm damage over western, and northern-central Europe, and a decrease over the rest of Europe. Our findings demonstrate the importance of climate model uncertainty for the projections of windstorms in Europe.